Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHK) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Bertrand William Donnes III: Hey, good morning, guys. It didn’t look like you had any incremental agreements on your LNG portfolio. I assume you’re still looking for those. But does the data center growing demand hypothesis kind of slow that down or maybe do you want to lower mix internationally? Maybe you’re more focused on U.S. or just what you’re thinking is there?

Nick Dell’Osso: Yes, good question, Burt. Now, we’re still actively engaged in a number of different LNG discussions. As you know, those discussions take a lot of time. As far as whether the data center concept would slow us down, no it wouldn’t necessarily slow us down. Competition is great, and we do think there will be competition for supply, so we’ll pay attention to that. But we’re moving forward with our strategies, and we think we’ll have ample gas to supply all of the markets where there will be demand and frankly look forward to there being some competition around that. But we’re not changing anything.

Bertrand William Donnes III: That makes sense. And then hypothetically, assuming everything goes well with Southwestern and you’re able to gain the synergies that you’ve outlined, are there more synergies from getting even larger at that point or do you focus more on midstream or maybe once you have that scale is when you just switch to more of a buyback program and driving more organic?

Nick Dell’Osso: Yes, I think at this point you’d have to say anytime you’re going to talk about what’s next in your strategy, you go back and talk about the things that we think are important, which are being able to supply these markets with the most efficient molecules possible to meet growing demands for energy. That means having a really low cost structure. That means having a really deep inventory. That means having great execution. We’re going to continue to stay focused on all of those things first and foremost. We did feel like the merger with Southwestern allowed us to advance on those fronts and have real synergies, real industrial logic that helps to improve our ability to meet those goals over time. As far as do you need something else?

It would have to meet our non-negotiables that drive towards those goals, and that’s really hard to predict whether or not there will be something in the future that would meet those non-negotiables. We’re going to stay focused for a while here on what’s a big job of integration and delivering on the promise of this merger, which is pretty tremendous for our shareholders.

Bertrand William Donnes III: I appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Operator: Your next question will come from Zach Parham with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Zach Parham: Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to get a little more detail on the curtailments. You highlighted you’d be curtailing 400 million a day in 2Q and that you curtailed 200 million a day in 1Q. Could you give us a little more color on the curtailment strategy and maybe detail how much in curtailments were built into the full year guidance and when you expect those curtailed volumes to come back to the market?

Nick Dell’Osso: Yes, I’ll start this and then I’ll probably pass it to Josh. So as we think about what we’re trying to accomplish this year, remember we’ve talked about doing a lot of activity deferrals, and those activity deferrals are focused on the fact that the market is pretty clearly oversupplied and we don’t want to bring on wells in an environment where the initial production of these wells, the significant part of the return, comes to market in an oversupplied market and receives a lower than breakeven price. So we’ve had the activity deferral schedule in front of us, but recognize that that activity deferral results in decline that occurs over a period of time. The curtailments that we saw occur in the end of Q1 and into Q2 are really about accelerating that decline.

We don’t need to keep that base volume curtailed throughout the year as the activity deferrals show up in more, in what I would call actual decline. But we have a lot of flexibility in what we choose to deliver to market. We’re going to pay a lot of attention about the supply-demand characteristics.

Josh Viets: Yes. And Zach, this is Josh. I mean, it is customary that we would see demand weakness in certain markets in the shoulder seasons. And so as we issued the 2.7% bcf a day guide back in February we had accounted for those volumes in there. But really, to Nick’s point, kind of how do you then set up a production curve to best mimic what the market needs? That’s effectively what we’ve done to where you model in and execute on curtailments in the Q2, and then you allow those volumes to flow back in over the next subsequent quarters in the second half of the year. So, in effect, you do see a sharper decline coming into the second quarter, with it flattening out into Q3 and in Q4, where we would anticipate market conditions to be a little bit better for us. But I’d also just stress, I think we’ve demonstrated a willingness to be disciplined with how we deliver production, and we’ll maintain that discipline as we move through the course of the year.

Zach Parham: Got it. Thanks for that color. And then Nick maybe just one on your latest macro thoughts. We’ve seen low 48 production decline pretty rapidly over the last couple of months now of some 100 bcf a day. Has overall production trended in line with your expectations? Really just looking for your updated thoughts on kind of the macro environment in general.

Nick Dell’Osso: Yes, great question, Zach. I would say, actually to see production get below 100 as quickly as we did is maybe a little bit surprising to us. We weren’t expecting that. But what we’ve also seen at the same time is that demand fell off pretty quickly. So starting with the supply side, we think curtailments took a bigger role. It wasn’t just activity deferrals. So people didn’t wait for decline similar to what I just described within our own decision making process, but so volumes came off probably a little faster than we would have thought through the year. However, what we also saw at the same time is that there were a lot of LNG capacity that was offline through March and April, and we probably had two to three bcf a day off through a good portion of March and April that represented pretty weak demand.