Cheniere Energy, Inc. (AMEX:LNG) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Zach Davis: Sure. So yes, we have heard about – all of the other projects mind you, they are Greenfield, et cetera. But as we think about it, if we could sign up the contracts like Anatol and the team has been doing and can do it around, let’s say, seven times CapEx or better, and then you fund it around 50% leverage. We are talking about sub-four times easy on the credit metrics, and you likely can still get to 10% or better on unlevered returns. We are going to do that all day. And not only are we going to do that all day, we are still going to wholly own these projects. We just have a different dynamic economically with an investment-grade balance sheet, cash flowing in the billions and having already spent $40 billion that structurally and financially, it is just no comparison. So yes, I guess, kudos to some of these folks for getting their projects to the starting line. But again, we have a really nice hand to play here at both sides.

Craig Shere: As we go into the next decade, do you see this basically as a systemic competitive advantage that the field is just going to permanently be windowed?

Zach Davis: We honestly don’t – we have to focus on what we do here, and Jack reiterates that all the time to us as we execute on these projects. Again, if the economics don’t align, we will be patient, we will be disciplined, and we will just keep on buying back the stock and letting all the shareholders that already believe in Cheniere own more and more of Sabine and Corpus in the meantime. And then when they do align and it is clearly accretive, we are going to go for it. And that is it. So if some other folks get projects done, so be it. But again, this industry is probably going to double in the next 20-years or so. And Cheniere is not going to build all of it because we are not doing this for market share.

Operator: Our next question comes from Robert Mosca with Mizuho Securities.

Robert Mosca: Just wondering if you could talk about some of the debottlecking activity you have undertaken at your non-train portfolio and when or whether you think you could start to push towards maybe the higher end of that 4.9 to 5.1 MTPA per train run rate?

Jack Fusco: Yes. this is Jack. Yes, I will tell you, Robert, I have been more and more impressed with what my operating folks have been able to do. And I am optimistic that they will continue to deliver on it. I think our guidance is right around five. My expectation over time is that it is going to be a little higher than that. When we guide to the five million tons that included and includes our major maintenance that we just talked about. We had significant major maintenance in this quarter and we are still able to hit the five million tons. So we are not ready to guide above it just yet, but stay tuned.

Robert Mosca: Great. Appreciate it, Jack. And for my follow-up question. I know in the past, it really has been a part of the playbook to take on equity partners for projects. But any revised thoughts on your appetite if there is a high-quality partner that could also sign up for a chunk of uptake since it seems like those opportunities may still be in the marketplace?

Jack Fusco: Well, as you know, we have some great equity partners with Blackstone and Brookfield and I have had a long relationship with them, and they have been very, very good partners for us at SPL. As Zach mentioned, his intent is to fund it with internal equity, internal capital down at CQP as well as some debt for our expansions. We don’t see a need to have to complicate our lives with more equity partners than we currently have today.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

Jason Gabelman: I want to ask too about the near-term outlook. There is a lot of concerns around European gas storage filling and potential pressure on MVP pricing. And I understand that it will have a limited impact to your earnings on 2023 given the way you have locked in pricing. But as you look to 2024, does the prospect of kind of more volatile gas dynamics impact the way you think about hedging your volume exposure next year, either doing some earlier or potentially waiting until after you get through the fall volatility?

Zach Davis: This is Zach. I’m going to start and then Anatol can give a viewpoint on the market. But basically, I pretty much look at our EBITDA forecast daily, our cash flow forecast daily and the volatility of the commodity curve definitely moves quite a bit, but the volatility in our EBITDA just doesn’t period. Like next year, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, might be our most derisked and most contracted year we will ever have. We will have less than 100 TBtu open, we will be like almost 98% or something like that contracted with all of the contracts starting up and that will be the case until we have some of that acceleration of Stage-3 ramping up. So there is not really a need to hedge or contract anything over what we already have. This was always baked into the 2020 vision into the $20-plus billion of available cash. And yes, we are pretty locked in for the next year or two until that Stage-3 comes online.