CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So we are very constructive on the S&D balance globally over the next four years. I think it remains to be seen how many new blue plants that are actually announced get built. Capital cost continues to go up and it’s easy to announce when it’s a lot harder to actually get financial close and build one and get it run in. So I think as we look out the next four years are very promising. We think based on the partnerships that we have lined up, we’re in a really good position, having secured end user demand to go forward with these things if we can make the math work. And others, it’s hard for me to speculate on where they are. We’ve seen a couple of projects that have been announced that people have walked away from. So I would just say again, more to come.

Stay tuned. At the end of the day, I think some level of discipline and rationality is going to prevail here. Because it is a big expense to build one of these things. And if you’re an end user, do you want to line up with someone that’s got single facility risk? Or do you want to line up with someone that’s got multiple sources of production for a decarbonized product and can guarantee supply even through turnaround periods and so forth. So we feel really good about our position in this marketplace.

Bert Frost: And just some additional comments. This is Bert, Adam. When you look at ammonia, and we mentioned in the prepared remarks about lack of gas in Trinidad and the difficulties in Europe. But if you feather in Brazil is not operating and the [indiscernible] pipeline coming out of Russia, Ukraine is not operating. You take an additional several million tons out. So if we calculate four to five out of Europe, one out of Trinidad, and Brazil and Russia could be up to three or four, you’ve got a substantial amount of movable ammonia out of the market. And that’s why I think you saw the reflection in the market when it hit the lows, it quickly bounced up back into the five and then now $600 range for global pricing which is a very attractive range for us.

Now regarding Blue and let’s just call it low carbon products will be coming on in 2025 with our Donaldsonville low-carbon ammonia and products, and we’re seeing a substantial interest whether that be for industrial applications or agricultural and that’s globally. So I’m very excited about the progress and the position we will be in, in the short, medium and long-term. with these products and the receptivity in the marketplace.

Adam Samuelson: There is a lot of helpful color there. I appreciate. I will hop back.

Operator: And our next question will come from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Andrew Wong: Hey, good morning. So just looking at the balance sheet, I mean there’s a pretty large cash balance even after taking into account Waggaman and you’re generating some pretty significant cash flow, which I think can pay for most of these projects that you’re considering over the next several years. Your shares are also trading at an attractive valuation. I think you would agree with that. So are there any plans to maybe just do a larger share buyback?

Tony Will: So let me give just a little bit of color, Andrew, on this one, which is going back to the beginning of last year, we’ve purchased, I think something close to 20 million shares back, which is about 10% of our outstanding float. During that same period of time, we have invested in some new capabilities, both in terms of green production and dehydration compression, blue production and build cash on the balance sheet. So we have been able to do sort of all of the above. We do have an open $3 billion share repurchase authorization. And the approach that we have opted to go for is to be sort of disproportionately opportunistic when we see attractive valuations and as opposed to just a consistent and steady return of capital.