Jesse Gary : Sure. So, on the coking pitch side, it’s — given the course of the past couple of years, it’s hard to really set what your expectations are because we’ve been stuck for almost two years now, with coking pitch prices that are just materially higher than what we ever saw in any previous period. So, as they’ve come down, I mean coke prices are down almost 50% from where their height was but they’re still well above where historical levels are. So obviously, a lot of this will have to do with the oil markets and energy markets globally and steel markets, frankly. But we continue to see them coming back down towards a normalized level. There’s really no reason why they shouldn’t. So, we’d expect that to continue over coming quarters, although we just wish it would happen faster than the past.
Caustic as we said, last about six months, it takes longer to come through. The caustic prices have really come off substantially, and we really haven’t started to see the benefit of that really flow through our results because that stand-on trends happened more recently. So, we’ll start to see that more significantly starting in Q1. And then on the — on the refinery side, we’re not giving cash breakeven for any of the assets. But what I did say in my prepared remarks was, absent the power disruption that we had at Canal in the quarter would have been about breakeven for the quarter. So that could be some sense.
Timna Tanners : okay, I would the back on seen after the call.
Jesse Gary : Thanks, Timna. And then maybe just to add on for Jamalco. Obviously, we’ve got a lot of CapEx programs ongoing there. So, we would expect that to continue to improve over the course of 2024, but that’s where we stand today.
Operator: Our next question is from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research. Your line is now open.
John Tumazos : Thank you. Could you shed some light on the big dip in European power prices or the Nord Pool price — is it more due to weaker demand slowing European economy as opposed to any increase in electricity supply?
Jesse Gary : Yes. So very good question, John. Thanks. I when you’re looking at European power prices, probably the easiest common factor to look at is natural gas prices. And in Europe, obviously, that’s referencing TTF. So, if you take a look at TTF over time, they obviously had very historically high levels, multiples of where it had been over history in the energy crisis that really hit late last fall, early winter. And the situation has definitely improved from that. So European natural gas storage is near capacity today. And availability is relatively strong. And so, you’ve seen TTF come back down significantly from the record levels that we saw last year. That said, it’s still multiples above where it stood historically.
And obviously, multiples above, say, where Henry Hub is here in the United States, more than 10x. So, when you look at it from that standpoint, maybe 10 times isn’t the right multiple, but it’s multiples above where Henry Hub is today. So, when you look at it from that standpoint, European energy prices are going to stay high, while that dynamic remains. And well, thankfully gotten better. I think there are still challenges. And you can then see that in industrial demand, where we’ve seen relatively subdued European economy.
John Tumazos : In your demand supply balance, you had almost 1 million tons of excess demand in China and 1.5 million tons of demand less than output in ex China, is that demand decline mostly in Europe — or is it more broadly spread out U.S., Europe developing world?
Jesse Gary : Yes. I think you got it about right, John, it’s definitely most significantly in Europe which I would say really all regions globally has been the most challenged over this period, much better in the U.S. to be honest, although obviously not at levels that we would like to see it and that we think it could return to. So, we — for both markets, frankly, are eager to see the cycle, go ahead and turn over because both markets remain very short on the aluminum side, and Frank gotten much shorter given the economic situation over the last several years. So, as I said, we certainly see some green shoots. Obviously, the end of the UAW strike here in the U.S. should help automotive demand going forward. It’s sort of an interesting one to predict.
