Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Andrew Asher: Yes. So it’s a good question. The demographics of what’s coming in looks very similar to — and actually, the subsidy eligibility has gone up a little. So nothing really alarming in all the attributes we can look at what we know today. Obviously, the proof is going to be in the med cost. And you’re right, in Marketplace, it’s a zero-sum game concurrent risk adjustment process for 2023. So that’s something we’ll be watching. There’s also 2 less competitors out there. And so we thought about that as we not only booked our 2022 risk adjustment receivables, but also as we forecast into 2023, we’ll get the first Wakely data in June this year, and we’ll have to take a look at that. But we’ve thought about that as we forecasted and as we closed out 2022.

Operator: And our next question today comes from Nathan Rich at Goldman Sachs.

Nathan Rich: I wanted to follow up on the Medicare business. Drew, could you help us think about the magnitude of the step down that you are thinking for Medicare margins in 2024, just given the comments that you made about pricing for a negative margin and trying to keep benefit stable maybe relative to the margin that you’re targeting for 2023? And then I guess outside of plan design, are there any offsets that you think you can leverage to try to mitigate some of this impact in 2024?

Andrew Asher: We’re always looking for whether it’s — Jim and the team, the Medicare team are focused on SG&A. I think there’s opportunity there. There’s continuing maturity in trend vendors. So yes, we’re going to look for any possible offset other than benefits. And as Sarah said, we’ll try our best to keep stability for our members, but we do expect at least at this early point to shrink a little bit in 2024. But the swing is pretty meaningful, both in terms of STARS and the very disappointing advanced notice with rates. I mean, that advanced notice for us, call it, minus 1%, excluding STARS because we made our own bed in STARS, but we are expecting a positive low single digit. So it’s a pretty meaningful swing. Every point is a couple of hundred million dollars on a $20 billion business.

So we’ve got to manage through that, and it will be a pretty sizable drop. I can’t give you an exact number yet. We’ll definitely give you that in 10 months after we’ve gone through the bids, we’ve got the final rates, and we’ve developed sort of that balance between margin degradation and stability in the product. But it will be tough. We’ll power through it. And ’25 and beyond will be margin expansion and growth as well ramp up over the next few cycles of STAR results. And it’s good to hear, Jim conveyed to you guys, that we’re already seeing some elements of optimism that we’re going to be able to achieve that multiyear improvement that we’re seeking.

Sarah London: One other thing I would add when we think about levers in 2024 is the breadth and depths of our value-based care relationships, which is something that I think we are — we’re already planning on, but have the runway to accelerate in 2023 in order to be in an even stronger position. And as many of you know that, that was — we have a good set of relationships with a number of the sort of leading value-based care providers, but I think we have been not as aggressive in that in the past, and so in 2022 started to turn our focus there. Our organizing around that internally brought in some great talent to help accelerate. So that will be a focus in 2023 that I think will give us some benefit in 2024 and then obviously beyond that as well.

Operator: And our next question today comes from Michael Ha with Morgan Stanley.