So we feel really good about that. So focusing on relationships and how long we keep a member used to more of a 7- to 8-year member retention, and we need to begin to build that kind of stability going forward. And a lot of steps that we’ve taken around STARS are starting to see some favorable results. So feeling good about that.
Operator: And our next question today comes from Justin Lake at Wolfe Research.
Justin Lake: First, I want to appreciate the color on ’23 and ’24. Just wanted to get a little bit more detail, of course. So it looks like you’re at 2.7% net income margins for 2023, give or take. From there, Drew, you mentioned Medicare Advantage margins go lower, it sounds like, year-over-year. I think the market certainly expects pressure on the risk pool in Medicaid year-over-year. So curious in terms of what gets better in 2024. I know one of the big buckets is Jim is working on those cost-cutting. Maybe you can share, for instance, how much cost-cutting benefit you expect to get from ’23 to ’24 as well as kind of your thoughts on that Medicaid margin in general and any other moving parts we might have missed.
Andrew Asher: Yes, sure. Thanks, Justin. Yes, some of the tailwinds for 2024 that are sort of baked into our forecast, obviously, a really meaningful tailwind from the PBM RFP as sort of a stair-step benefit, as we’ve talked about, that commences 1/1/24. And we’re well in the integration period and the transition period, working well with ESI and CVS as both good partners. So we expect to yield that benefit across our entire book of business. Investment income continues to be strong. We expect that to continue into 2024 share buyback. You see our share count, as we disclosed in our Investor Day deck, ended the year lower than we had anticipated. So we’re able to bake that into our 2023 guidance. And at these prices, we’ll be buying.
That’s for sure. Marketplace will be a few billion larger than we originally anticipated in 2024. And we like our margin position there, and we can probably make another step or we will make another step in 2024. And then as you mentioned, the overarching value-creation plan, including a lot of the work that Jim and a lot of other people around the company are executing on pulling levers, we expect momentum as we get into really the third year of that value-creation plan. So those are all the tailwinds. But as I mentioned, Medicare is going to be a pretty significant headwind given STARS as well as the lackluster and advanced notice. You also asked about Medicaid. So as I think about Medicaid, and I know you’ve asked this a number of times, but now we’re on the conference call, that’s FD compliant, so I can answer some of those questions.
So as we think about the progression going from 2022 to 2023, we ended the year at 89.6% in 2022. And we’ve got about 30 basis points of pressure built into 2023 up to the very high 89s. But as we dissect the 2022 actuals and we look at things that we had to fortify or are unlikely to recur. That’s another 10 to 20 basis points of nonrecurring, call it, items embedded in the 2022 Medicaid HBR. So we think that gives us adequate room for a little bit of pressure from redeterminations as we are working hard with our associations, with the actuaries that represent our associations, the actuaries that represent the states, our state regulators, departments, and really sort of warming them up for what may or may not be necessary. But to the extent that there is a risk pool shift, we expect action probably not as fast, but hopefully close to as fast as the action that was put in, in the other direction with acuity changes during the COVID era.
