Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Scott Richardson: Yes. And we have to continue to work our pipeline really to touch on all three areas, whether it’s battery electric, hybrids or ICE, just because each market is developing a little differently. I mean, in China now over 20% of the market is EV and so we still have to continue to focus EV there pretty heavily. So, it is important that we kind of build that broadly speaking. We have not seen a significant change in terms of the types of vehicles and what our customers are buying and really an impact to our business at all. And in fact, I mean, if you look at things on a year-over-year basis, which is probably the right way to look at it, auto builds were up, I think around 2% or so. Globally, our business, our volumes were up about four on a year-over-year basis into auto. So, I think from that perspective, specifically we feel like the project pipeline model continues to deliver value for us.

Salvator Tiano: Great, thank you. And I also want to ask to go back a little bit on the China Acetyl capacity expansion. I assume some of these downstream projects that were supposed to absorb the acid demand around the polyester chain, but at least in our estimates there are a bunch of VAM and EVA projects as well. So, certainly as they come online, they will absorb more of the acetic acid, but you do participate in these markets and you did have a comment that prepared remarks that you have much higher variable margins, so I believe, in the downstream projects. So, as this capacity comes online, on a net basis, would that actually be good for you or could it be a source of margin pressure because you may lose some margin on your downstream business?

Lori Ryerkerk: Look, I would simplify it and just say any additional demand for acetic acid, no matter which in market it’s into, is good for us. So, again, because we do sell a lot of acid to others as well.

Scott Richardson: Yes. And I would just add, when new capacity starts up, whether it’s acetic acid, VAM, et cetera, it’s going to come in and it’s going to have a near-term impact. But those things then even out over the subsequent quarters. And our business is really about flexing our global network and that full value chain. And so, one quarter we’re going to make money one way, the next quarter, we’re going to make money a different way. And that really is the uniqueness of this kind of integrated value creation model that we have within the Acetyl chain.

Salvator Tiano: Great, thank you very much.

Brandon Ayache: Diego, we’ll make the next question our last one, please.

Operator: Thank you. And that final question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please stay your question.

Hassan Ahmed: Good morning, Lori and Scott. Again, wanted to revisit the Acetyl chain, particularly in China. I mean, reading through your prepared remarks, it just seemed like the first quarter was like a tale of two cities. It seemed you guys started very strong and then by February pricing started weakening. Just trying to understand the dynamic behind that. I mean, it seems, the two new facilities that you guys talked about, they’ve been around for call it five or six months. So what really caused that change between the first half of Q1 and the second half?

Lori Ryerkerk: Hassan, you may recall, I mean, typically in China, Q1 is seasonally lower demand quarter because of Chinese New Year’s. So if you look at total — if you look at acetic acid pricing specifically in China, I mean, what we did see in Q1 was the lowest price since fourth quarter of ’20. And again, not unexpected, very much in line with what we’ve expected. And again, it is based on the lower demand. I would also tell you, even though that new capacity maybe came on two quarters ago, it takes a while for them to ramp up and to really get into the market. So I would say it’s shaping up very much as expected. I would also say, this is normal. As Scott said, that there is some minor disruption in the market when these come online, but things do settle down over time.

Scott Richardson: Yes, let me just add, Hassan, I think it’s important to remember, we have the single largest, our single unit, the largest single unit turnaround in the history of the corporation in the first quarter, largely hitting the acetyl chain business. We had some of these dynamics in China, yet the business still generated 28% EBITDA margin. So it’s a very resilient business that finds a way to still deliver value even when we see market disruptions or when we see higher costs from things like turnarounds.

Hassan Ahmed: Very helpful. And as a follow-up, if I could just sort of hit on the 2024 guidance again, maybe in EBITDA terms, I mean, over the last couple of months, you talked about some of the drivers. And I just want to make sure numerically I’m thinking about them or their trending, as you guys had stated a couple of months ago. I mean, you talked about the M&M synergies being, call it $150 million EBITDA-wise, worth of a tailwind, Clear Lake expansion being around $100 million. And then obviously, you had some offsets in terms of headwinds from some of the outages that you had last year. So, I mean, as you sort of sit there and think about some of those headwinds and tailwinds, incrementally year-on-year, how much of a boost will we get from some of these controllables and new capacity additions?

Lori Ryerkerk: Yes, again, I think if you look at versus 2023, those things that you called out M&M synergies that 150, Clear Lake expansion, we’ve asked them to still deliver $100 million for the year. And we probably have another, an offset of about $100 million, maybe a bit more for higher turnaround related expenses as well as some of the non-repeatable impacts from last year. I think the two factors you’re not factoring in there is, we will have lower debt services year as we’ve paid down over a million and a half of our net debt. And that’s probably another 50 or so, and then we’ll have lower cost flowing through from our inventory with all of the inventory we took out last year and be able to flush out some of that higher cost inventory. And as we said, that that may be the single biggest factor this coming year as well.

Hassan Ahmed: Very helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator: Thank you. And there are no further questions at this time. I’ll hand the floor over to Bill Cunningham for closing comments.

Bill Cunningham: Thank you. We’d like to thank everyone for listening in today. As always, we’re available after the call for any follow-up questions. Diego, please go ahead and close out the call.

Operator: Thank you. And with that, we conclude today’s conference. All parties may disconnect. Have a good day.

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