Carrier Global Corporation (NYSE:CARR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Deane Dray: It will helpful. Thank you.

Operator: And our next question coming from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Steve Tusa: Good morning. Can you just talk about like the trend of what you see on Transport refrigeration orders as well as light commercial orders? Those have been very strong. I know the light commercial market is up nicely, but obviously, some very big numbers in the context of 50-week lead times in that industry. Just curious as to how you see that trending because there could be some perhaps unusual activity in that market in particular. But maybe how you see those orders trending over the next several quarters here?

David Gitlin : Yes. I’ll start, Steve, with light commercial. Light commercial has just been extremely strong. We saw orders were up in the mid-teens in the fourth quarter. If you look at overall 2022, orders were up 45% And demand is still strong for things like K-12, value retail, fast casual and quick serve restaurants. So — all trends seem extremely positive. The issue we have continues to be with light commercial keeping up demand, where we’re implementing second-line second shift. And our focus is in our customers. The issue we have right now as far as the I can see, is not a demand one in light commercial. On the Transport side, orders were up extremely strong in the fourth quarter in North America, even with us trying to control opening the order book for the second half of ’23.

North American orders were up 2x, North American Truck Trailer. Europe Truck Trailer was down a bit. I would say mid- to high single digits, I believe. We have, of course, seen orders very light in the container space, which is why we’ve calibrated that business down, certainly in the first half of the year. But — what’s really encouraging is the North American Truck Trailer piece, the demand remaining very robust there.

Steve Tusa : And then just one follow-up on the resi side. So you ended the year with inventories just a bit above what you expected in the channel. Like how do you — what signals are you looking for here for like demand this year. How confident are you in your distributors’ projections to make the assumptions you’re making? I mean, how wide is the band of outcomes there, in your view, given the situation with inventory? It just seems to me that like everybody is throwing out kind of flat to down. But when you kind of ask for the underlying, they talk about what happened in the fourth quarter, maybe what happened in January. And anything that’s informing your view and maybe a little bit of a ring fence around the band of outcomes there on volume?

David Gitlin : Well, it’s a good question, Steve. Yes, we try to calibrate it what I would say conservatively, now we’ll have to see when all is said and done, if it turned out to be conservative, but we put volumes down high single digits for the year with — when we looked at it, we said new home construction down 20%, 25%. I — we have a couple of customers in particular that on their earnings call said that they expect to get to flattish for the year. So will the industry be down 20% to 25%, perhaps we have outside share in the industry. So in many respects, we should go the way of the industry. But there’s a wide range of outcomes there where could it be flat? Could it be down 30%? Who knows anywhere in that. But again, that’s 20%, 25% of our residential business, the new home construction.

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