Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

David Bernstein: So we haven’t given detail by year. But what we have talked about is by 2026, combination of the improving EBITDA and the debt reduction program, you’re going to see investment-grade type metrics in 2026. Remember that in 2024, we do have three ships for delivery. And so that probably will be less debt reduction in 2024 than in 2025 and 2026, where is in 2025, we only have one ship. And in 2026, we don’t have any ships on order. So just keep that in mind as you build through the math throughout the years.

Assia Georgieva: It seems that debt reduction would accelerate over the years.

David Bernstein: Correct.

Assia Georgieva: Okay. And David, just one other quick question, if I may. NCC, net cruise cost, ex fuel are somewhat elevated levels relative to history. And I think having the – restart having somewhat lower occupancies that you’re building on, especially at some of the European brands during the winter months. So that makes sense. But excluding the dry docks, which are coming up in 2024, do you expect that cadence of percentage increase in net cruise cost ex fuel to decelerate?

David Bernstein: So let’s keep in mind the 2023 numbers are being compared to 2019. So that is four years, not one. And so when we get to 2024, we’re going to go back to the year-over-year comparisons, it’s just one year. And so the expectation would be it’s only one year of inflation as opposed to four years of inflation. So keep that in mind as you go through and think about 2024.

Assia Georgieva: That makes sense.

Josh Weinstein: I think it’s fair to say yes – the answer is yes. We don’t expect anything year-over-year like we’ve had this year in the 11%, absolutely.

Assia Georgieva: Okay. Thank you so much. I really appreciate the answers.

Operator: Our next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please proceed.

Matthew Boss: Great, thanks. So Josh, maybe could you elaborate on recent underlying demand trends in North America versus Europe? More so the continued momentum that you’re seeing through September that you cited, I guess, what are you seeing if you break it down between loyalists relative to new to cruise and just initiatives in place to retain these new customers that you’re seeing?

Josh Weinstein: So I can’t – I don’t have any data about what the breakdown is for the bookings of September based on first timers or loyalists. But what I can tell you is that – I just – I think it’s probably important to put into context. We’ve talked about wave, right? And we talked about how wave was the longest wave in history. And I’m not sure when we’re ever going to call it, right, because we broke the record in Q1. We then broke that record in Q2, which never happens. We just hit a record in Q3. And when you look at the first four weeks of September, actually, we’re up very nicely as well. And it’s also being driven by the European brands. North American is positive. But the European brands are really coming on as we expected our portfolio to do.

And so it hasn’t slowed down in September. We attribute that to all the good work that our brands have been doing that we’ve been talking about and the inherent pent-up demand that we can still tap. And the encouraging thing is because of that trajectory with new to brand and indeed new to cruise, it means we’re effectively back to normal from that perspective, and we can really focus on optimizing the revenue and the yields. So it hasn’t stopped.

Matthew Boss: Great. And then, David, just to circle back on the puts and takes around cost that seems to be heightened sensitivity. So 1% to 2% core cost growth, if I heard it right, plus dry docks, I think you said 0.75 to 1 point. But then the offset or partial offset is economies of scale and the reorganization efficiencies, I think you said maybe around 1 point of opportunity. So if you net these items, my math, it’s about 2% total cost increase. Any items that I’m missing here, just to maybe clarify some of the puts and takes there?