CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 6 of 10

Rajat Gupta: The other was like just the continued reductions in any way trying to — or is it an indication of like the market backdrop in any way? Is there a view that you’re taking on the volume recovery here, over the next few quarters? And then the third part of the question was just what would the — if you could quantify the impact from the bonus accruals in the third quarter.

Bill Nash: Rajat, this is Bill. I’ll take the first part. Enrique, you take SG&A. As far as, look, if you look at our staffing, I think for this whole year, we’ve been fairly stable. Like Enrique said, we’re down about 10%, but head count total has been fairly consistent to the last few quarters. And I think we’ve really put ourselves in a position that we can be very nimble here. So depending on what happens with the business, if the business picks up. We feel really good about where we are from a staffing-wise, we can manage hours that kind of thing. If the business took a downturn for some reason, we also feel like we have some flexibility. So I think we’ve really kind of given ourselves a nimbleness that we feel good about going forward. And then I’ll pass to you.

Enrique Mayor-Mora: Yes, but the corporate bonus pace within compensation. So very specifically, that was about $5 million in the quarter in terms of favorability.

Operator: We will turn now to Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

Scot Ciccarelli: So I have a follow-up on the affordability issues. Do you guys think you need to get back to 2019 levels and affordability to get your 2019 volume levels back to — get back to on a 2019 levels on a per store basis? And then related to that, any insight you guys could provide in 4Q? I think investors have generally been expecting comps to turn positive in 4Q just due to easy comparisons, but I believe some of the third-party data suggest trends might be still negative. I appreciate that.

Bill Nash: Yes. Sure, Scott. I think on the first part of your question, you’re talking about affordability. And I assume you’re talking about the price of cars where it was in 2019 versus where it is today? Am I interpreting the question, right?

Scot Ciccarelli: Correct?

Bill Nash: Look, I don’t think I’d be hard pressed to say that I think we’ll get back to the 2019 levels. I do think there’s plenty of room — back 2019, I think average sales price was 20,000. This period, it was a little over 27,000 and I think it’s — we’ll get back down hopefully in the low 20s, low 20s or so, maybe mid- like 25 or so, all of those are better than where they are today. And we already see kind of year-over-year where our under $20,000 cars and our under $25,000 cards, we’re making progress there. So we think that’s a good sign. But do I think they’ll get all the way there. I don’t think so, partly because just new cars are becoming more and more expensive. So I think the bigger thing there is what does that gap look like in the future?

And then as far as comps go, yes, look, I think the market, it’s been a little choppy and from a consumer demand standpoint. If I look at the three months of the quarter, it was choppy. I mean, September was our best month, although it was still negative. October was the lowest month, November was similar to October, although it was a little — it was better than — November was better than October, although they were similar. And then December is similar to November, although right now, it’s a little bit better. So, I think we’re continuing to monitor elasticity, doing the things that we need to do. And I’m hopeful that as we see some of this depreciation manifest itself but on the front line. I think that will be good for the industry going forward.

Scot Ciccarelli: Bill, I guess my question is on the affordability issue. Like do you need — how much improvement do you need in affordability to get your volume back on a kind of a per store basis to what you saw in 2019?

Bill Nash: Yes. Look, it’s a hard question to be able to exactly answer what that needs to be. I think that, again, I think we can get back on to the comp growth without having to get back to 2019. And again, we’ve seen sequential improvements this year even though the prices haven’t come down dramatically from the start of the year. So it’s a hard question to answer, Scott. But look, our goal is to get back on to the comp growth. And the reality is if I look at first 10 months of this calendar year, which we have market share data for versus the last six months of last year. We’re doing better from a market share standpoint for the first 10 months than we were the last six months of last year, which I think is encouraging. We haven’t comped total year-over-year yet because the first half of last year was so strong.

But as I said earlier, I’m encouraged by the fact that October is the first month we have month-over-month market share — a year-over-year market share growth.

Operator: We’ll go now to John Healy with Northcoast Research.

John Healy: Just wanted to ask, Bill, just your expectations kind of maybe on this year’s tax season, it’s just around the corner. And what you see as kind of maybe pluses or minuses. I don’t know I know we all fixate on kind of the monthly trends, but anything relating to tax season, how you guys are feeling like that might impact this year’s business or any kind of other exogenous factors that might go into kind of maybe how we see February or March demand levels kind of materialize?

Page 6 of 10