CarMax, Inc. (NYSE:KMX) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Now they have the option to just not take pictures, if they want to take pictures, they still can. So that’s some of the innovation there that I think that helps. So we feel really great about the innovation. And as we go forward, it will probably be dependent more on what’s going on in the market dynamics, that kind of thing at any given time. As far as kind of the quarter and just outlook — look, obviously, the industry is still challenged, and everybody knows that. And obviously, our business isn’t where we want it to be. But I do think there’s some encouraging signs out there. I mean besides the fact that we have continued to have sequential improvements we saw a lot of depreciation this quarter, really steep depreciation. And while that causes some headwinds on in the near term, and it’s going to cause some headwinds just in wholesale a little bit and even on the retail side.

It’s a short-term thing, and I think it benefits the overall used car industry, and it will benefit us because that will continue to come out on front-lit prices. You saw we’re about $1,300 down this year, year-over-year on sales prices. From an acquisition standpoint, it was more like $1,500, but we had some mix adjustment stuff in there. So again, I think the steep depreciation is good. Interest rates if they at least stabilize, I think that’s great. I think it’s great for the business. I think that will help. And if they come down, I think that will be kind of extra icing on the cake. Another thing that I would point to is our market share. October, which is the latest period that we’ve gotten market share data on is the first month that we’ve actually comped our market share year-over-year.

So I think that’s encouraging. And then the other thing I would tell you is — we’ve talked before about just comps and where the sales might be going. And we’ve done some analysis with one of the credit bureaus just trying to understand of the customers that apply for a loan through CAF, where do they go? And it seems like from the analysis we’ve done, there’s a lot of customers that just once they decide they’re not buying, they’re not buying. So it’s almost like there’s a — maybe hopefully, there’s some pent-up demand that I think we’ll see as the market comes back. So again, I think while there’s some signs of encouragement, yes, the industry is still challenged. We’re encouraged by that. And I think taking all that into consideration, also just bearing in mind, this whole time we’ve been working on cost control, becoming more efficient, having better experiences for our customers and our associates.

I think all that plays well to into the future. So hopefully, that’s helpful.

Operator: We’ll turn now to Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

Seth Basham: My question is also on CAF. Jon, could you give us some more color on those securitizations from late ’21 through 2022 in terms of your expectations that the loss curves are going to flatten out because we haven’t really seen that in the data yet.

Jon Daniels: Yes. I appreciate the question. Yes, I think the key thing to point to here is if you look at — obviously, what’s published out there right now is I think the 2019 stuff going forward. If you pull back and you look at sort of the 2016, ’17, ’18 stuff that I think is — you probably have access to stuff. And you look at the typical shape of that curve, what we absolutely are seeing is the ’21, 3 the ’21, 4, looks like it’s turning over. Now everybody is going to trend it their own way. But when we look at that and you look at the timing of loss, we absolutely see these things coming in certainly within our targeted range. The ‘22, 1 and the ‘22, 2 we’re watching very closely, looks like that’s beginning to turn over.

Admittedly, the ‘22, 3, ‘22, 4 earlier in the life have not yet turned over, and so we’re watching that very carefully. But neither had those previous ones I mentioned at the point at which they exist. So all of this, when we trended out, we know the sub-segments that are in there, we know how they perform and how early the loss comes. We absolutely believe all of this is coming in, in the 2% to 2.5% range, which is truly our target. So does that give you the color you need, Seth, anything further on that?

Seth Basham: That’s helpful. Of the securitizations you have outstanding, are you forecasting losses for any of them above that 2% to 2.5% range?

Jon Daniels: For those — for the securitizations we have today because, again, we have the luxury of breaking that down by sub-segment by different pockets. And we right now do not see anything above the 2.5%. Again, that’s — and again, that’s a target. Yes. Not saying the inning is going to come above there. If something came up at 2.5%, 2.55% at the end of the day, we will reserve for it accordingly. It will be what it is. But no, right now, we do not see that. And I think the only other point I’ll make is, again, this is what has been securitized to-date. Bear in mind, and I think you’re well aware of this, Seth. It’s four, five, six months before it ends up in a bulk of our tightening has absolutely occurred over the last year. So I fully expect as that stuff hits the market, you’re going to see clearly the evidence of the tightening that we have done over the last year.

Enrique Mayor-Mora: As Jon had mentioned, a lot of the receivables that we don’t see are in our warehouses, right? It’s about, what, 60% roughly of what you’ll see, are in the securitization data that’s public, but there’s a good chunk of receivables that are not necessarily public because they’re an warehouses there in alternative facilities. And that’s really where you see a lot of that tightening. That’s blending into the overall loss rate.

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