Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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So, there have been a bunch of investments there. Most of that — not all of it, but a lot of that shows up in marketing. That also has a significant upfront component in terms of not only the direct marketing and the brand building, but also the early spend bonuses that go right through the marketing line when we — at the early stage of these accounts. So, that’s something that we’ve been growing and sustaining over the last number of years. We love the traction that we’re getting. And so, we continue to lean into that. And then again, the national bank, where I just want to comment, we are really pleased with the national bank that we’ve built. This is a — we are the really only kind of full service national bank that is — doesn’t have a national quest to — through acquisition to continue to grow.

In other words, of all the banks our size or even smaller, the realistic path to growth is to do that through mergers and acquisitions, our path is an organic one. We’ve invested quite a bit to create full digital capabilities for almost everything you can do in a branch to be able to be done by a customer digitally. And so that our growth story is not just about savings accounts, but it’s very much about checking accounts as well. And this is our quest we’ve been on for some number of years to build a national bank. That also is — that’s physical distribution light and marketing heavy. So a bunch of things kind of come together to create the pretty big marketing levels that we have now, but we feel very good about the traction that we’re getting.

Jeff Norris:

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Richard Shane with JP Morgan.

Richard Shane: Andrew, you’ve made the comment talking about the reserve rate on the card portfolio and reflecting the seasonality of the increase in spend and balances from spend-driven accounts. As we move into Q1, should we assume that with normal portfolio runoff but a mix shift that that allowance coverage ratio will actually pick up then because you’re going to get a mix shift?

Andrew Young: Well, there’s a number of factors, Rick, that will play into coverage ratio. So, why don’t I just pull up and lay out the key pieces and forecast assumptions of our allowance. And I will get to your kind of seasonal balance point in a moment. But I think it’s important to lay out all of the component parts rather than just talk about one individual one since all of them will affect where coverage goes from here. So, the first part of the allowance is we’re using models to estimate the next 12 months of losses. And the early period of this forecast is generally more accurate because, as Rich was talking about earlier, we can look at the existing delinquency inventories and flow rates, beyond those months we incorporate in the economic assumptions, they become a more significant driver of expected loss content.

I referenced that in the answer to the first question that was asked on the call, but the error bars around the loss content widened the further we go out over the course of the year. The second factor impacting the allowances, we start from the year one exit rate for losses and then assume a reversion to a long-term average over the following 12 months. And then, the third thing is we net forecasted recoveries against the loss estimates for all of those periods. And so, on top of all of those assumptions, we then put qualitative factors in places where we believe modeled outcomes have limitations. And so, we end up putting all of those pieces together to evaluate the allowance. The open-ended product of credit card is different than closed-end loans as we go through those mechanics because with closed-end loans, we’re reserving for estimated loss content for the account.

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