Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 6 of 11

Don Fandetti: Rich, I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about your thoughts on auto credit. And then, as a follow-up, what you’re seeing on credit card spend, in particular, heavy spenders and whether or not they can sustain for travel and spend numbers.

Richard Fairbank: Okay. Thank you, Don. In auto, let’s talk a little bit about the auto business and maybe a little bit of a comparison to the card business. Just to talk about — auto as many of the very same trends. It is all the same general trends going on with the consumer and the normalization that we have been talking about. The auto business also has some other things that are unique to it. Auto recoveries, for example. Auto recoveries inventories are unusually low because of the very low charge-offs that we’ve had in the past few years. The past charge-offs are basically the raw material for future recoveries. So, the generally good news that has been in the auto industry of robust used car prices actually puts upward pressure on our overall loss rate as recoveries inventory build.

So, we also, in terms of the credit metrics, we have seen more degradation in the very, very low and mostly below where we play in the auto business, but we have trimmed a little bit around the edges at our own low end. But basically, we continue to feel very good about our originations. From a credit point of view, the biggest issue in auto is the margin pressure that has come from the rising interest rates that have not been fully passed through by the competition. So we continue to feel really good about the auto opportunity, but our pullback is really not a credit-driven pullback so much as it is a margin-driven pullback. But we certainly do see the — we can see the normalization in the auto business.

Don Fandetti: Okay. And then on the credit card spend, same story. Are you seeing moderation? And can you talk about heavy spenders trends?

Richard Fairbank: Yes. We — you’ll notice our own spend growth numbers moderated quite a bit this quarter. We are seeing spend per account per customer moderate across our portfolio, moderating the most at the lower end, but we see the moderation. We see it the least in the very heaviest spenders, but the moderation that you see in our spend growth metrics are driven really by what’s happening per account, we continue to get nice growth of accounts. So that is a phenomenon that — and then we kind of ask, well, what should we be rooting for? I think you’re seeing a very rational response by consumers to the environment. There was a big surge in spending. I think it’s moderating somewhat, particularly at places other than the very highest end of the marketplace. So, I think it’s basically a sign of consumers being rational.

Operator: Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

Sanjay Sakhrani: Thank you. Andrew, first question for you on share repurchases. Maybe you could just help us think about the pace of share repurchases as we move forward because I know you guys slowed them down, but you’ve been building capital. Maybe you can just help us with that first.

Andrew Young: Sure, Sanjay. In terms of thinking about the capital that we have moved down over the course of the last couple of years from — in the 14 to we hit a low point of 12.1, a couple quarters ago. But as we sit here today, we’re just looking at the actual and forecasted levels and the earnings and growth and in particular, economic conditions, and there’s some pretty wide error bars around those factors, particularly with respect to growth and economic uncertainty. And so, we feel like at this moment in time that it’s good to be a little bit more on the conservative side with risk management of managing that capital. But clearly, we have the flexibility around our capital decisions under SCBs. And so — and I don’t know, Rich, if you wanted to make any comments about repurchases as well.

Page 6 of 11