We recently compiled a list of the 10 Best Credit Card Stocks to Buy Now. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) stands against the other credit card stocks.
The market for credit card issuance services has expanded significantly over the last several years. At a CAGR of 9.2%, it will grow from $478.09 billion in 2023 to $522.22 billion in 2024, according to the Business Research Company. Over the coming years, a significant expansion in the market size for credit card issuance services is anticipated. At a CAGR of 8.3%, it will increase to $717.7 billion in 2028, as per the research. Contactless payment usage, data security concerns, cryptocurrency emergence, embedded finance, customization, and personalization are all factors contributing to the growth in the projection period.
The credit card market is still changing, mirroring changes in customer preferences and general economic conditions. According to the Q4 2023 Quarterly Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR), the average credit card debt per borrower at the end of 2023 was $6,360, a 10% rise YoY. This resulted in a total of $1.13 trillion in credit card debt in the United States the same year. Moreover, the average amount owed by households in the 90th percentile is $11,210, with higher-income households often having larger loads.
According to TransUnion, credit card usage continues to rise, with 167.2 million users expected by mid-2023, representing a substantial rise over the last three years. Furthermore, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, credit cards accounted for 31% of all payments in 2022, although less than 10% of Americans typically utilized cash, according to a December 2023 Forbes Advisor survey.
As per the Federal Reserve Board, credit card delinquency rates have been rising gradually and will reach 3.1% by the end of 2023, the highest level since 2011. Additionally, charge-offs rose in Q2 2024 from 4.16% to 4.38%, a record high of 12.5 years that hasn’t been seen since Q4 2011. Meanwhile, according to Forbes Advisor, the average credit card interest rate in March 2024 was 27.89%, putting financial strain on people with balances.
In the future, digital payment methods are expected to gain popularity; according to a survey conducted in August 2023, more than half of customers preferred digital wallets over traditional cards. This change shows that credit card companies will continue to innovate, even as concerns about interest rates and debt levels persist.
Overall, as we have also mentioned in our article, “7 Best American Bank Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds,” the U.S. market for digital banking platforms was estimated at $1.04 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.63% to reach $2.04 billion by 2031.
Looking forward, according to a report, credit card spending is predicted to increase in the mid-single digits by 2024, while balances will fall to the mid-to-high single digits after a substantial rise since 2022. If labor markets are steady, credit performance measures are expected to decline during 2024 and stabilize by early 2025. Despite lower inflation, key problems include resumed student debt payments, high interest rates, and growing living costs.
Yanni Koulouriotis, CFA, Vice President – Global FIG stated:
“Overall, DBRS Morningstar expects a less favorable operating environment for credit card issuers in 2024 as consumer dynamics shift and are less of tailwind to credit card issuer performance. While we expect weaker financial performance in 2024 compared to 2023, we still expect performance to be supportive of current credit ratings.”
Methodology:
We sifted through holdings of credit card ETFs and online rankings to form an initial list of 20 credit card stocks. Then we selected the 10 stocks that were the most popular among institutional investors. The stocks are ranked in ascending order of the number of hedge funds that have stakes in them, as of Q2 2024. We have used the stock’s market cap as a tie-breaker in case two or more stocks have the same number of hedge funds invested.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points. (see more details here)
A smiling face of a customer as they make a deposit at this company’s branch.
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 65
Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF), a holding company offering a range of financial services, is situated in McLean, Virginia. Credit card lending, auto loans, and commercial lending are currently the company’s primary business activities. The company was created in 1994 as a spinoff of Signet Financial’s credit card division.
The fourth-largest credit card issuer in the world agreed to pay over $35 billion to acquire its rival, Discover Financial Services. If the deal goes through, Capital One will take over as the sixth-largest bank in the United States, with over $450 million in deposits.
The company grows nationally despite having a smaller branch network by using its online and mobile platforms for client acquisition and support. By using this strategy, the business can benefit from having a large financial institution without having to pay the high maintenance costs associated with having a large branch network.
The firm’s net interest income during the second quarter of 2024 came from its consumer division, which accounted for only around 25% of the company’s overall revenue. A substantially larger 70% of this came from the bank’s credit card operation. Although most banks make a sizable profit from credit cards, Capital One Financial views credit cards as “the” business.
Given COF’s strong Q2 profits, reduced operational costs, and stronger credit performance, Jefferies analyst John Hecht upgraded Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) to a Buy rating and raised the price target from $165 to $170. Hecht also outlined the strategic steps Capital One has made to facilitate future expansion, including customer acquisition efforts and the company’s efficient administration of the Walmart contract.
Ariel Global Fund stated the following regarding Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“We also added global financial services company, Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF). The company is the largest online consumer and commercial bank with a leading position in general purpose and small business credit cards. We view the company as competitively advantaged particularly due to their investment in technology. According to recent reports, COF is also rated as one of the leading banks within Artificial Intelligence (AI). Notably, the company recently announced an acquisition of Discover Financial Services (DFS) which we believe would produce significant long-term earnings accretion. COF will be able to leverage DFS’ proprietary payments network, enabling direct interaction with merchants and consumers. This closed loop dynamic should lead to higher volumes of credit card conversions presenting further upside for its shares. At current levels, we view the long-term outlook to be attractive, given favorable business trends, stabilizing delinquency rates within the credit card industry, synergies from the DFS acquisition and COF’s enhanced focus on technology.”
Natixis Global Asset Management’s Harris Associates is the largest shareholder in the company, with 15,180,437 shares worth $2.10 billion.
Overall COF ranks 9th on our list of the best credit card stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of COF as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than COF but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.