Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (NYSE:CP) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

I think we’re somewhere around 3%, 2% to 3% for the quarter. And again, I’ve already talked about if some of those things don’t happen then that will change. But right now that’s where we’re sticking our guidance to and we’re well on track to be able to achieve that. So John, you want to provide a little color on the price?

John Brooks: Yes. So that’s exactly, Fadi, in terms of I’m looking at the quarter in terms of volume. Certainly hopeful there is upside in May and June, but with the strike and other things looming, we’re going to stay responsibly cautious on that front. The grain business, you’re right. It definitely has been a little better the last 30 days or so. But we’re going to get into seeding here in May and certainly expect that to fall off. I just met with all the grain companies the last couple of weeks and they are pretty optimistic that we might see particularly if we get some rains here in May and early June that we might actually see a pretty decent push this summer. So, we’re watching that closely and certainly that could provide some upside there.

You asked about the pricing. I’m super pleased with the execution and discipline that the team performed with in Q1. I saw it coming. We held in there and we delivered on the very top end of our efforts the last half of ’23. It’s carried into the quarter in ’24 and we’ll continue to be disciplined as we move forward. I had previously said there were a number of maybe legacy KCS agreements that hadn’t been repriced and we’re coming up for renewal this first half of the year. So we’ve been focused on those, we’ve been focused on those in the context of what Keith said, making sure we’re getting the value for the service and capacity that we provide. So I expect that to continue here in Q2. If I were to call out one area where we’ve seen maybe softness versus others, it would be in the domestic intermodal front.

I think that’s pretty obvious though relative to some of the overcapacity challenges in the truck market out there. But there also might be some signs of life there as we push towards the second half of the year. I’m really pleased with how we’ve seen our volumes grow on our Mexico and Midwest Express train. I fully expected a slugfest here to start the slugfest here to start the year in terms of building that volume and we’ve had some really nice wins. So if we can keep that trajectory going, again, there might be upside as we look to Q2 the second half of the year, sorry.

Operator: Your next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Keith Creel: Operator, please go to the next question.

Operator: Certainly. Your next question will come from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Ken Hoexter: Great. I’ll take Scott’s question as well. Keith and team, great thoughts on Jim, always enjoyed our discussion, so thoughts there as well. John, you tossed out there real quick the intermodal noted some short haul lanes left. Is that from increased competition? And then, perhaps Keith or Nadeem, can you talk about the progress on synergy targets? Are there can you talk about the dollars at this point? And does that set you up? I guess normal sequential operating ratio performance would put you sub-60% into the second quarter. Can you talk to that level? Thanks.

Keith Creel: On the synergy question, Ken, we’re exactly where we said we would be. We exited 350, we said we’re going to double it on the revenue side. So we’re certainly on track in a good position. Same for the cost synergy side. So synergies are moving in line with what we said if not a little bit ahead. So we’re very pleased in that space.

John Brooks: On the short haul stuff, Ken, honestly it’s stuff that we’re completely fine with it exiting our railroad. To be quite candid with you, it’s business that principally ran between stations in Mexico and the border. It consumed a lot of capacity at our terminals in Mexico and certainly our border crossing. So the fact that a lot of that traffic has moved over to the FXE has frankly just opened up the ability for us to grow the long haul. I talked about our average length of haul being up, I think 8% year-over-year. Our intermodal average length of haul is up 12%. And that’s we’re utilizing premium ride and a seamless connection at the border up into the upper Midwest into Canada. So I expect that trend to continue.

Keith Creel: He’s right into that value proposition model, Ken. It’s a good thing, not a bad thing.

Nadeem Velani: And Ken, we’ll obviously see sequential improvement in the OR and year-over-year improvements. So given you a Q2 number, I’d say that it’s going to be somewhat dependent on what happens with the labor situation. We talked about some of the grain impacts in Q2 that we might see that the grain volumes start to decline in Canada as seeding takes place and we start running out of grain in Canada, but so it depends. I’m not going to give you a number. I’d just say that we’ll continue to see improvements in year-over-year improvement.

Operator: Your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James.

Steve Hansen: I wanted to circle back on the length of haul issue because it’s been quite market of an increase, not just in intermodal but in ECP as well. And John, do you want to maybe just comment on the longevity of that trend? I presume it’s the Edmonton to the Gulf volumes that are helping extend that length, but just any broader commentary around the durability of this broader length of all the team? Thanks.