Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Mario Mendonca: Good morning. I am sure what you guys are suggesting from a margin perspective is consistent with each other. But I was having a little trouble piecing it together. Hratch, you talked about how the bank would continue to benefit from rising rates, but doesn’t sound like Canada retail will in the near-term. Could you perhaps, Hratch, take a global look at the bank and think about what margins might do in the first half of the year relative to the second half of the year, because my suspicion is that it will look a little bit better in the second half, at least relative to peers. Can you help me think that through?

Hratch Panossian: Yes. Good morning Mario. Happy to do that. And in general, I would say you are right. I think we will see better margin trajectory as interest rates stabilize, because some of the factors Laura spoke about will stabilize. There has been a bit of noise given the pace of increases. For example, Bank of Canada rates in terms of Fed rates, the pace and extent, and then how that re-prices through our balance sheet. But I always start by saying, look, we have got a strong balance sheet. We have got strong businesses that are growing on both sides, loans and deposits, generating margins on both sides of the balance sheet and overall contributing to NIM trajectory. There is a number of factors at the total bank level that impact this, and we have talked about that in the past.

So, there is mix changes. If you look at what happened this quarter to total bank NIM, mix changes were a factor. You saw more liquidity. You saw our LCR go up to 129%. You would have seen our cash resources, a lot of it sitting at Bank of Canada. You would have seen that on our balance sheet increase. So, some of those costs affect overall margin. Those things will normalize. And then the core trend of benefiting from interest rates will come in, that will help total bank margin. If I go now to Canadian P&C to answer your question, we will see benefits there as well. And so you will continue to see the same benefit a few basis points a quarter. We have been very consistent with this. Our guidance has said from interest rates, we will benefit a few basis points a quarter on an ongoing basis, which puts you in the territory of 10% to 15% €“ 10 basis points to 15 basis points over a year, over four quarters, if you will, on a spot basis.

So, we still feel pretty good about that. The factors that are impacting margins of that business that Laura covered in the short-term, right, prepayments were a negative now. We don’t expect that to impact it going forward. So, I don’t expect sequentially to put pressure in the first half of the year. But the mortgage and margin piece Laura spoke about I think will be a factor for a little while longer. The commitment spreads are starting to go up. But when those hit your book are a little bit delayed, as you know, a few months later. And so I think as that stabilizes and some of the other noise around the cost of funds increases passes through, you will see a better trajectory in the back half than the first half.

Mario Mendonca: Okay. So, moving to a different topic, the performing loan reserve, clearly, CWC stands out there a little more than what your peers are reporting. What would be helpful to understand is what product specifically or region specifically got the lion’s share of that performing loan reserve increase and maybe not regions because I can check that out for myself, but more of what product?