Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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And so that contributed 1 basis point to total bank NIM expansion ex-trading. You had the FCIB business that shows up in corporate and other. Part of that corporate, not our NII strength, there’s FCIB. That business is positioned to benefit from higher U.S. interest rates as well. And the U.S. business was very strong. So FCIB in the U.S. business combined, that contributed another basis point. And there was another basis point in corporate and other that I would say is core. This is part of — we talked last quarter about how we had a little bit of excess liquidity. You would have seen our cash resources were about $15 billion higher than they are this quarter. So, when cash comes in to deposits in the short term, we can’t deploy it. In the long term, we put that to good use in treasury in HQLA, earn a higher a yield on it, and that was also helpful.

So, I would say it’s three of that — three of the five is those three elements and that continues. That’s why I would start from 164 and go forward. And I will say we are seeing some momentum over time. Towards the end of the year, we see more acceleration at this point, maybe a little bit more stable in the front half. And that includes some assumptions that we’re making around continued pressure on noninterest-sensitive or noninterest-bearing deposits going to higher-priced deposits. But that’s the one risk. We have a good amount of that assumed in our forecast. But if that is more pronounced than what we’re seeing, and we’re seeing that across the industry, this isn’t a CIBC thing, that could put a little bit more pressure but still some upward trajectory to margins, but maybe a little less than we would have otherwise anticipated.

Today, I would tell you we said 10 to 15 basis points Q4 to Q4, ’22 to ’23, probably closer to that 10 but still possible to be around that range.

Doug Young: Very helpful. Thank you, very much.

Operator: The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Gabriel Dechaine: Good morning. I do want to stick to this NIM outlook thing and you’re talking about the acceleration in the back half. I just want to know what you have in your outlook there as far as macro environment? And what if — do you still have rate hikes, flat rates? Like what — my actual question is what happens if the rates are cut to that guidance? I think that’s more positive.

Hratch Panossian : Yes. Thanks for the question, Gabe. I’ll take that. And so, what we’ve assumed this is always the same for us, right? We don’t try to predict the market. So, we take the market’s view of the markets. So, as I referenced in my remarks, this assumes the current forward curves, and the current forward curves don’t anticipate cuts for the rest of this fiscal year. So, we’re generally assuming Canada is largely done. Maybe there is another one there. And then in the U.S., there’s a little bit more to go but not anticipating any cuts. We’re assuming some, like I said, migration of deposits. We’re assuming the mortgages in Canada — what we’re seeing is good positive momentum and the new commitments in terms of margins more towards normal, not quite back to normal, but we’re assuming, again, conservatively, we don’t quite get back to normal, but it’s better than what it was maybe last year.

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