Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE:CM) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Mario Mendonca: Good morning. I’ll try to be quick. Harry, could go back to you for a moment. Obviously, a big number in the trading side as other folks have offered. I went looking around for quarters that even came close to $206 million in estate trading. And I don’t think it’s coincidence, but it just happens to be those quarters when credit spreads came down. I mean, a classic example would be Q3 ’20 when credit spreads came in. So it would appear to me that what we’re seeing at least in part is some mark-to-market on the fixed income book. First of all, do I have that right?

Harry Culham: Good morning, Mario. No, I don’t think you have that right. This is not about the inventory we hold. This is about doing client activity, client transactions. So very well diversified in the credit space, in the rate space, in the commodity space and the FX platform, which, as you know, we’ve invested in very heavily over the years. So I would say it is an outsized quarter indeed. Extreme client activity in volatile times, and we’re able to actually, I think, be there for our clients in really volatile markets, given the technology and the systems we have in place and of course, our talent, back to front.

Mario Mendonca: So Harry, just a coincidence then that every quarter where credit spreads came in, the fixed income trading was really strong? Or is it really that declining credit spreads lead to increased trading activity? Because it seems like more than just a coincidence to me.

Harry Culham: Yes, I think it’s the latter. I think our clients are more active in general in that environment. I would say though that, as you’ve seen, even in extremely volatile markets that are not completely disrupted, we do outperform. And you’ve seen that over the years. You’ve seen the stability of earnings be front and center for us as we try to deliver a consistent, sustainable earnings growth in the Capital Markets platform, really delivering all of Capital Markets to our clients. So I would say it’s the latter. Our clients are very active. Larger transactions that are really about delivering the global markets products to our corporate and institutional client base that are covered by the corporate and investor client franchise. So I don’t think I answered your question specifically because I think it really is symptomatic of the markets, and they’re very active and we’re there for our clients.

Mario Mendonca: Got it. Let me move on to deposits for a moment. We are seeing deposit attrition, like deposits actually coming off the balance sheet, not in Canada, certainly not for CIBC. Deposits look fine. But it’s no secret that is happening in an accelerated way in the U.S. Can anyone offer an outlook on why Canada is different? Is it simply that we just didn’t — we didn’t — there wasn’t as much of a spike in deposits during the pandemic? What’s your outlook there?

Victor Dodig: Well, it’s always difficult to ascertain why specifically, Canada is different in this instance, Mario. I think it has to do with a number of different things. I think when you look at the stimulus that was provided in Canada through the emergency wage subsidy, the CEBA program, the SERV program, the student program, pound for pound, the stimulus was large. That’s number one. Number two is Canadians, we tended to open up slower than the United States did. So there was a tendency to spend less. And three, there’s a conservatism factor in there that’s playing out. That’s, I think, in a nutshell, why you see on a relative basis, a slower burn off. I think those deposits will burn off over time. We’re prepared for that.

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