We recently published a list of 11 Biggest AI and Tech Stock Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades in July So Far. Since Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) ranks 11th on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
As soon as the latest softer-than-expected inflation data numbers were out, investors began to take profits from major tech stocks and pour money into small-cap companies amid hopes of rate cuts. However, some were quick to call the latest decline in tech stocks the end of the AI-fueled rally that has pushed stock valuations to eye-popping levels. But there are some Wall Street analysts who believe this is just a short-term trend and large tech and AI stocks have a lot of room to grow. Samantha McLemore, CIO of Patient Capital, said while talking to CNBC that the “bull market continues and the path of least resistance is higher.”
The analyst said that she has been in the market for a long time and investors have been worrying about the end of the bull market since 2009, while the S&P 500 has grown over 1000% (17% per year) since then.
“We don’t see any end to the bull market. We do think there’s a good chance we see a rotation and small caps, the laggards, do much better in the second half of the year as the Fed starts to cut rates.”
Some analysts believe the latest decline in tech stocks is yet another opportunity for long-term investors to pile into AI stocks for gains. In this backdrop, we decided to take a look at the top AI stock upgrades and downgrades this month. With each stock, we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
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Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 26
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas thinks Rivian’s AI potential could match that of Tesla’s. Morgan Stanley’s optimistic view on Rivian is that the electric vehicle maker is uniquely positioned, apart from Tesla (TSLA), to scale a fully integrated software stack critical to harnessing the broad AI opportunity. This AI potential could attract investors at a market value 1/60th that of Tesla. The AI factor significantly contributes to Morgan Stanley’s bullish price target of $33 for Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN).
Rivian has suddenly become interesting after the company signed a deal with Volkswagen according to which the German company will invest a whopping $5 billion in it for a joint venture to develop next-generation software-defined vehicle platforms.
During the second quarter, Rivian delivered 13,790 vehicles, slightly up from 13,588 in the previous quarter and much higher than 12,640 in the prior-year quarter. Production took a hit as the company’s Illinois plant was closed for about 25 days as it was upgrading it to streamline production processes. Rivian is going through a cost-cutting and efficiency-boosting phase.
Amazon also has a significant stake in the company and Rivian plans to provide the e-commerce giant with 100,000 electric delivery vans (EDVs).
While Rivian is still a loss-making company, it expects to swing to a “modest” profit by the end of this year.
During Q1 earnings call, the management talked about its plans to achieve profitability
“Our gross profit loss per vehicle delivered was approximately $39,000, which includes $15,500 of depreciation and $1,700 of stock based compensation expense. Our results were negatively impacted by approximately $9,300 per vehicle delivered as part of our cost of revenue efficiency initiatives, which we don’t anticipate to be part of our long-term cost structure. We continue to move closer to making money on every vehicle we sell. We expect to see meaningful improvement in our gross profit during the second half of this year and believe we will reach a positive gross profit for the fourth quarter.”
Meridian Hedged Equity Fund stated the following regarding Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN) is a US-based manufacturer of electric vehicles, namely the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV. They also have exposure to the commercial vehicle market with their electric delivery vans (EDVs) that are sold to companies like Amazon. The company has faced challenges amid the broader slowdown in electric vehicle demand and rising interest rates. This has contributed to Rivian underperforming expectations over the past few quarters. Rivian has also incurred losses as it continues to invest in the development of its products and manufacturing capabilities. We own Rivian in a hedged structure, which provides a significant margin of safety. Despite the near[1]term challenges, several factors provide optimism that Rivian can emerge as a long-term winner in the EV market. Rivian’s balance sheet is strong, with a substantial cash position that enables the company to continue investing in its growth and navigate through the current economic headwinds. Rivian is also unveiling the R2, which is a smaller and more affordable EV platform that will open the company’s products to a wider customer base. Lastly, Rivian’s investment in the enhancement of its production capabilities should improve the company’s manufacturing efficiency and drive a path to profitability. We continue to hold the company in a hedged structure.”
Overall, Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN) ranks 11th on Insider Monkey’s list titled 11 Biggest AI and Tech Stock Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades in July So Far. While we acknowledge the potential of Rivian Automotive Inc (NASDAQ:RIVN), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than RIVN but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
