We recently published a list of 7 Best Oil Stocks under $20. In this article, we are going to take a look at where NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) stands against the other best oil stocks under $20.
The oil industry has long been criticized for its contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and global warming. Despite these concerns, oil remains a critical commodity in today’s world as it has historically played a pivotal role in the global industrial, household, and power sectors.
The dynamics of the oil market shifted dramatically two years ago following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Western sanctions on Russia, combined with efforts by European nations to reduce reliance on Russian crude, disrupted global supply chains and drove oil prices to record highs. As mentioned in our previous article ‘10 Best Oil Stocks Under $20’, prices soared to $119 per barrel in March 2023. The impact of sanctions remains, as Russia’s monthly revenue from seaborne crude oil registered a significant 15% decline in May 2024 compared to the previous month, as reported by The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Demand and Supply in the Oil Market
According to the International Energy Agency, the global oil industry faces a challenging landscape, with slow demand growth coupled with supply chain disruptions. In the first half of 2024, the demand grew by just 800,000 barrels per day (kb/d), which is the slowest increase since 2020. The main contributor to this declining demand is the consistent drop in China’s consumption in the past four months. The trend in 2024 contrasts with the 2.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) surge in demand seen in 2023. The slowdown in China’s economy, combined with the shift towards electric vehicles, has driven the decline in global consumption.
On the other hand, the global supply increased in August by 80 kb/d, jumping to 103.5 mb/d. This surge was bolstered by high outputs from countries including Brazil and Guyana. This high demand balanced the production outages in Libya as well as maintenance-related slowdowns in Norway and Kazakhstan. However, OPEC+ countries are expected to face challenges, with supply projected at 810 kb/d by the end of 2024.
Although weaker-than-expected performance in China and falling margins in Europe are putting pressure on refinery activities, refinery output is expected to increase by 440 kb/d in 2024. Moreover, oil prices have declined, with Brent falling by over $10 per barrel in August and early September. This was mainly driven by concerns about Chinese demand, coupled with oversupply fears, according to IEA.
Despite challenging circumstances, companies are positioning themselves to align with shifting market dynamics. As a result, the crude oil industry is expected to surge at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.8% until 2030, with an expected valuation of $1.6 trillion, according to Maximize Market Research.
Performance of Oil Stocks
Following the decline in oil prices, energy sector stocks have also delivered a mixed performance. The Energy sector surged by 13.3% on a year-to-date basis through July 2024. However, it still lagged behind the broader index by 3%. Thus, with a rapidly changing global scenario, energy sector stocks are expected to see swift movements in the near future.
Methodology
For this list, we scanned the Finviz screener and selected companies involved in the oil industry, focusing on areas relevant to oil production and its products. From that list, we selected companies with share prices under $20 as of September 24, 2024.
Among those, we chose seven companies with the highest number of hedge fund holdings and ranked them in ascending order based on these holdings, as of Q2 2024. Hedge fund data was sourced from Insider Monkey’s hedge fund database, which tracks the activity of 912 hedge funds.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
An engineer inspecting a complete set of oil and gas components.
NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV)
Number of Hedge Funds Holders: 29
Share Price: $16.90
NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) designs and manufactures equipment and systems for the industrial, renewable energy, and oil & gas sectors. The company also offers services ranging from drilling optimization to equipment repair. It also has expertise in drilling, hydraulic fracturing, and offshore production.
NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) reported revenue of $2.2 billion in Q2 2024, which is an 8% increase from Q2 2023. This increase was mainly driven by strong demand in international markets and improved aftermarket sales in the Energy Equipment segment. Gross margin also improved, with EBITDA reported at $142 million, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 11.8%. The increase in margin was primarily due to cost-saving initiatives, a higher-quality backlog, and a favorable shift in the sales mix.
The Energy Products and Services segment saw increased revenue in the service and rental business. The company saw strong growth in the Permian Basin due to its advanced drill bit designs. In addition, the downhole tool rentals rose 3% on a year-over-year basis due to steady demand for technologies that support complex drilling.
However, NOV Inc. (NYSE:NOV) faced significant challenges due to a decline in North American drilling activity. The 12% drop significantly impacted the company’s revenue from services and rentals business. Additionally, Tuboscope reported a revenue decline due to reduced demand for oilfield tubular inspections. The company has warned that the Intervention & Stimulation equipment unit has continued to face weak demand in North America, which will hinder the company’s revenue growth. As a result, the stock price has dropped by 12% over the past six months.
Despite this, NOV’s backlog for subsea flexible pipe has grown significantly, with demand stretching into 2027. The company also expects improved international demand to offset the weak performance in North America. As of Q2 2024, 29 hedge funds have collectively invested $1.3 billion in the company, according to Insider Monkey’s database. As a result, NOV makes it to our list of the best energy stocks under $20 to buy.
Overall NOV ranks 6th on our list of best oil stocks to buy under $20. While we acknowledge the potential of NOV as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than NOV but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
