Alex Jessett: No. We do have some reductions in millage rates. This is the total. So if I look at tax rates, we’re anticipating about 1% down in Tampa, 1.5% down in Orlando, and 1.5% down in South Florida on millage.
Ric Campo: It’s all driven by value. The values are continuing to be assessed higher in most markets.
John Kim: Right. Okay. Great. Thank you.
Ric Campo: Thanks.
Operator: Our next question will come from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. You may now go ahead.
Alexander Goldfarb: Thank you. And yes, happy 30th, although, you guys don’t look a day over 20, so happy birthday.
Ric Campo: Very good.
Alexander Goldfarb: So two questions here. The first question is on the skips and evictions, I get that for markets like maybe LA or Atlanta, but your occupancies were down across the portfolio, which almost says that you guys were focusing more on driving rate this quarter. So maybe just broadly, if you can put a little bit more color on evictions, and skips if it’s beyond Atlanta and LA and then two, for all the talk that we hear about supply in the Sunbelt, you guys are pretty good at driving rents up 7% or so, or revenues up 7%. So maybe just a bit more color on what you’re seeing operationally so we can understand the difference between how much of the portfolio is impacted by the elevated skips and evictions versus supply versus just normal pricing policy that you guys use in the peak leasing season.
Ric Campo: Yes. Let’s start with a supply question first, and then we’ll come back to the skips and evictions. So one of the things that, that we’ve always done is we – when we think about our operating plan for the year, it’s a – it is very much a bottom up process, and we have to do that because the one big variable in our markets is typically are you going to be impacted by lease ups in your submarket? And so to the extent we have communities that are going to be impacted by competitors and new supply, they need to take that into consideration when they’re thinking about their game plan. So we do a bottom up analysis, and when you do that, and you start with sub – at the submarket level, and if you just we use our own kind of gathering of assets to define a submarket, but if you want to use RealPage, it’s a pretty good proxy for that.
So if you’ve got lease ups that are going to be going on in a submarket that we have existing communities in, that’s the first level that that clearly is going to that community will be impacted. And then the second thing you look at is what’s the age of Camden’s asset relative to the new development and our – and we use a filter of 10-year old assets or older, we define them as that’s a different price point and they’re probably not going to be competing with brand new development. So when you take the supply that, that everybody is understandably focused on and concerned about, but if you run it through those two filters, is it in – is it – is a asset that’s being built in a sub-market that affects a Camden asset and is it – is a Camden asset less than or more than 10 years old.
When you run all of the supply in all of Camden’s markets through those two filters, what comes out of that is about 15% of the total supply market by market is impact – is impacting a Camden community. So it’s the scary headline numbers of 400,000 apartments being delivered over Camden’s 16 markets in a six quarter period. When you go through the analysis from bottom up and look at is this really likely to impact the Camden community, it turns out that it’s about 15% of the supply is in that, that category. So that’s a big part of the reason why even though you see, sometimes you see these numbers that look kind of crazy in a market like Austin, where over the 2023, 2024 timeframe, you’ve got – in 2023 and 2024, roughly 40,000 apartments being delivered.
That’s a scary hell I number for sure. But when you do the bottom up analysis, you discover that really only about 20% of that supply, that’s – it’s even impacting any of Camden’s community. So I think our – so far we’ve been able to handle whatever supply is impacting Camden communities and with the end migration and strong job growth in these markets. And I – we expect that that some version of that is likely to continue throughout 2023 and 2024.
Alexander Goldfarb: Okay. And then is it fair to say it’s just the evictions and skips are really just Atlanta and LA, right? Or is it other markets as well that are being impacted?
Alex Jessett: Yes. So clearly Atlanta and California are the outliers, but I will tell you that we are seeing upticks in some of our other markets. That by the way is a good thing. All of the courts have opened up, but all the courts are delayed. And so you’re starting to see some acceleration on the court side, which is really getting folks that have not been abiding by the rental contracts for quite some time, and you’re starting to get them out much quicker now, which is obviously, as I said is a good thing, and you should expect to see these numbers start tailing off pretty good as we move through the year, because once again, the systems are open and things are starting to flow a lot better.
