So I think there’s a certain amount of bias that everybody has about their own markets, and we operate in these markets. We are seeing what’s happening every day. Pretty hard for me if I had two properties or three properties in New York City, does that give me a sense of what’s going on in New York City and the answer would be no. You have to have a broad sense of these markets. We’ve operated in our markets for over 30 years. We understand how the dynamics work — and some of the numbers are just incredibly compelling. Like, for example, let’s take L.A. and San Francisco. Both have — L.A. still has 43,000 jobs lost since 2019. San Francisco, 52,000 jobs lost. Dallas added 418,000 jobs from ’19, Houston 233,000, Austin 205,000, phoenix 223,000.
So the bottom line is, is that what’s been driving the markets in the Sun Belt continues to drive those markets. And the fact that our West Coast and East Coast brethren are doing better than us from a revenue growth perspective is because their hole was so deep that they’re just crawling out of a deep hole. And yes, that’s a good way to place stocks now and then. But I don’t understand the 100 basis point gap between the implied cap rate for Mid American Camden versus equity in Avalon Bay. And so because ultimately, what’s going to happen is that when the markets write themselves from a supply perspective, the same thing that drove outperformance of revenue growth in the past, which is job growth and household formation and all the positive things that are going on in these markets is going to continue.
So unless you bet that we are going back to the sexy 6 cities that get all the growth, I don’t think that’s going to happen. I think there’s a fundamental change in the dynamics between growth in these markets and growth in the East Coast, West Coast markets. And we can all agree to disagree, but that’s what you guys do is you buy stocks based on that, right? So we’ll see who’s right.
Rich Anderson: Thanks very much.
Ric Campo: Sure.
Operator: The next question comes from Steve Sakwa with Evercore. Please go ahead.
Steve Sakwa: Great. Thanks. Good morning. Ric, I guess I wanted to piggy back on your comment about the possibility of starting some new development. And I’m just curious which markets are kind of higher up on your list? And if you looked at the economics today, where do those deals pencil? Or how far away are they from actually penciling where you think the development needs to be?
Ric Campo: Well, development needs, it would be — if you look at our development page in our supplement, you’ll see where we’ve development and where they’re positioned. And we’ve developments. I would say that the closer ones would start would be Charlotte. And Charlotte is absorbing, you think about the supply push, and Charlotte has a big supply push, but we are leasing over 40 units. We are using 40 — leasing 40 units a month at our new developments there. And it’s just really quickly and at a decent rate and — and so I would say it would be — go down that list, and you’ll see where it is. But the economic issues, some properties, clearly, depending on where you are, we have two developments in Nashville, for example, and Nashville does have a bigger supply issue than most cities between Austin and Nashville have the biggest supply — the new supply coming online.
So we are going to take a hard look at those numbers. But when you look at current cap rates today, I know it hurts people’s head to think that they’re in the low 5s, we have trades that are going on today in the high 4s. And even though you have negative leverage, they’re basically buying based on the pound. They’re buying at 40%, 50% of replacement cost and their bet is, is that when supply is absorbed, that there is going to be rent spikes that happened in 2026, ’27, ’28 that are going to be similar to ’12, ’13, ’14. And that — and so if you — if we do a pro forma like that, then most of our developments are going to be in the 6s. And so I think that makes sense. But the question is, we still need to see some — see this the leasing season this year and have more confidence that before we commit a lot of capital to development, we need to see more cards.
And so to me, it’s just looking at the supplement, you’ll see where our starts are.
Operator: The next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Alexander Goldfarb: Hey, good morning to all there. Ric, hopefully, you trademark [indiscernible] that sounds like it could be a good moneymaker.
Ric Campo: There you go.
Alexander Goldfarb: So going to the jobs and the strength of the Sunbelt, clearly, a lot of supply, but what’s been going on across earnings season is everyone is talking about the strong jobs in the Sunbelt. But at the same time, general the talking heads and economists and everyone is talking about potential for recession, hard landing, hey, the job — the economy is not great, and yet all the apartments are talking about really good demand. And it’s hard to believe that it’s only because move outs to homes are low and your typical renter can’t afford a home. So it does seem like the economy is stronger across the Sunbelt in your markets than what the talking heads would say. Would you agree with that? Or is there something else that’s explaining the disconnect between the broader economic concerns versus the absorption and the demand that you’re seeing in your markets?
Ric Campo: Well, I think the idea that you’ve the risk of recession and hard landing or soft landing, that’s out there for sure. There’s no question about that. And I think that’s what [indiscernible], right? I mean if you look at the first quarter and then the print — the job print that just happened, 175,000 jobs that was published today, the — I think that job number, the consensus was [technical difficulty] so when get 175, and of course, the market rallies to 10 years rallying big time [indiscernible] to that because that’s a [technical difficulty] kind of scenario, right, where it’s not too [technical difficulty]. And so I think that question is I think there’s still a concern about what the Fed does and do they ease or do we have [technical difficulty].
