We recently compiled a list of the Oppenheimer’s Favorite Stocks For Next 12 Months: Top 32 Stock Picks. In this article, we are going to take a look at where C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI) stands against Oppenheimer’s other favorite stocks for the next 12 months.
The tail end of August is appearing to turn a fresh page for Wall Street. The highlight event of the month was the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Summit, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell was expected to set the tone for the central bank’s interest rate cut cycle. Powell didn’t disappoint and commented that the “upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased” which leads him to conclude that the “time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
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Naturally, investors took this in full stride and the benchmark S&P flagship index soared by 1.01% to be just 1% shy of its record high in July. Before Chair Powell’s comments, earlier in the month, investment bank Oppenheimer had released its latest list of 32 stocks for the next twelve months. These stocks have been picked on the basis of their fundamentals, say the firm’s analysts, and are the “most timely” as per the firm’s analysts.
This latest set of stock picks comes as the firm has grown progressively bullish about the stock market over the course of 2024. The year started out with a report that set a 2024 close target for the flagship benchmark S&P index at 5,200. Right now, the index is at 5,634, so safe to say, the market has continued to defy expectations primarily because of investor mania for artificial intelligence. As he quoted chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus’s 5,200 index target, analyst James Watt admitted that while 2024 is the crucial election year in America, his firm’s clients should instead focus on the economy.
Taking a bullish view, the analyst shared that with “growing GDP, a jobs picture that continues to be strong, moderating inflation, and stable interest rates, our economic statistics look good.” Watt also commented on the interest rate scenario and conceded that “long term interest rates are notoriously hard to predict.” However, the economists’ expectations back then were “anywhere between one and three interest rate cuts,” and these could lead to the “tremendous amount of cash on the sidelines which will eventually be invested over the coming years” creating further upward pressure on equities.
One key factor that Watt mentioned is something that we’ve come across in analysis done by other investment firms too. Sharing “that the universe of investable stocks has significantly decreased over the years,” he also shared that “there are only 35 companies with a capitalization over $200 billion and just 83 companies with a capitalization over $100 billion.” These “are the companies the vast bulk of funds are invested in,” with the analyst warning that the key implication from this could lead to the supply and demand driving “the price of these dramatically due to limited supply.”
As the second quarter of 2024 came to a close, Watt’s views on the bifurcation in the stock market based on market capitalization remained unchanged. In his overview for Q3 2024, the analyst shared that “the NASDAQ and S&P are not really diversified when it comes to performance.” Since this concentration in just a handful of securities tends to nudge investors towards a non diversified stock portfolio, the analyst added that this “anomaly hasn’t always been the case but the long term benefits of diversification have remained a constant way to get through various market gyrations.”
However, by Q3, the financial firm’s views on the benchmark flagship S&P index had evolved. By then, Stoltzfus has first increased the target to 5,500 from 5,200 in March, sharing that an evolution in investor “mindset driven not so much by fear and greed but a need to invest for intermediate to longer-term goals suggest to us an opportunity to tweak our target higher.” As if this wasn’t enough, the strategy lead was out with another revision in August.
This boosted the target to 5,900 on the back of an upward revision of the P/E multiple to 23.1 from the earlier 22. Two additional key factors that drove the strategist’s optimism were an innovation cycle that was both cyclical and secular driving all 11 S&P sectors, and a generational shift in investment strategies driven “not so much by fear and greed but a need to invest for intermediate to longer term goal.”
Stoltzfus followed up a month later with an in depth analysis of the top 500 S&P index firms’ Q2 earnings to see which sectors had done well despite the mixed economic climate. Mind you, this analysis came just before his firm had released its latest set of 32 stocks, so it is important to learn its conclusions from the Q2 2024 earnings season. The strategist shared that the four sectors that were seeing double digit earnings growth were health care, financials, utilities, and consumer discretionary. Their earnings growth sat at 17%, 13%, 15%, and 16%, respectively. Stoltzfus added that nine out of 11 sectors had shown positive earnings growth, with the 8.5% overall growth leading to a surprise upside.
Looking at the robust data set, the analyst concluded:
“We remain overweight US equities while maintaining some meaningful exposure to international developed and emerging markets as the US Central Bank moves towards easier policy on greater confidence that its efforts to put untoward levels of inflation in check have been or are growing closer to being met. Volatility should be expected as the economy and the markets navigate the transitions taking place in the economy and monetary policy in a move towards greater normalization.”
So, as Oppenheimer continues to keep its eye on the evolving US economy and markets, we decided to see which stocks are on its radar.
Our Methodology
To make our list of Oppenheimer’s top stocks, we ranked its latest list of 32 stocks by the average analyst share price percentage upside.
For these stocks, we also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A computer engineer debugging a complex AI application on a powerful workstation.
C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI)
Share Price Upside: 16%
Number of Hedge Fund Investors In Q2 2024: 18
Average Analyst Share Price Target: $28.39
C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI) is a software company that allows users to develop and deploy applications along with managing their customer relationship management, supply chain, and other business processes. Despite having rebranded itself recently to capitalize on Wall Street’s fervor for AI stocks, C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI)’s story is mixed as while the firm has somewhat delivered on the growth aspect of its business valuation, it has nevertheless left a lot to be desired on the cost control front. In its latest fiscal quarter, C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI)’s revenue grew by 20% annually, and as management was keen to point out during the earnings call, the quarter also accelerated revenue growth over the previous three quarters’ 11%, 17%, and 18% annual growth. However, this growth also came at the expense of higher operating costs, which jumped by 11% annually. C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI) is currently transitioning into a pay per use business model, and this might have affected its subscription revenue which marked a 41% annual growth during the quarter a marked jump over the previous quarter’s 23%. Oppenheimer is bullish on C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE:AI) primarily because of its platform level support for ChatGPT.
However, Bireme Capital isn’t. Here’s what it had to say during the Q4 2023 investor letter:
“Our final new short position is in a company called C3.ai. Originally named “C3 Energy,” C3.ai has changed its name multiple times based on whatever hot new trend they were supposedly capitalizing on. The “energy” theme was about smart grid and cap-and-trade. Then the firm changed its name to “C3 IoT” to attempt to capitalize on the Internet of Things buzz. After that trend fizzled out, the moniker was altered once more, with the company capturing the “AI” ticker in December 2020 – a savvy move if it wants to sell stock to credulous investors, but irrelevant to its business prospects. As Kerrisdale put it, the company is a “minor, cash burning consulting and services business masquerading as a software company.”
The company incinerated $200m last year and is set to burn more cash in this one. They may grow mid-teens this year after just 5% growth in FY 2023, but there is really no comparison to truly fast growing software businesses like SNOW (33% growth this year), Gitlab (31%), and Datadog (26%).
With an EV/sales multiple of 9x, we think the stock is grossly overvalued.”
Overall AI ranks 15th on our list of Oppenheimer’s favorite stocks for the next 12 months. While we acknowledge the potential of AI as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AI but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
