Builders FirstSource, Inc. (NYSE:BLDR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Trey Grooms: So first question, Peter, you mentioned that October trends were, I think, you used the word healthy. Can you go through maybe some more detail on 4Q, kind of what you’re seeing thus far and maybe what kind of looking into your single-family assumption that you’re baking in here for the 4Q guide?

Peter Jackson: Sure. I can get started. I’m sure Dave will have a commentary as well. But the year has been a good year, right? We had that big reset at the beginning when the builders decided where their new rates would be, and it’s been very stable. I think we did expect there to be a little bit more volume in the third quarter. We thought there’d be a little bit of a push. Certainly the commentary from the large nationals was very strong and for a variety of reasons, whether it be tone or weather or whatever the factors were, it just wasn’t as good as we expected. Our performance was still quite good. We’re certainly pleased with our profitability. But as we look at the way the year has played out into the fourth quarter, it’s still healthy. The strength of the business continues and we’re pleased with that ability to continue to see good flow through on the sales side, despite some of the headlines that sort of have gotten everybody so concerned.

Dave Rush: Yeah. The only thing I’d add is the national builders continue to be stable, right? I’m not saying that they’re expecting substantial robust growth, but they’re definitely still going forward with the plans that they’ve communicated to us. Their ability to use interest rate buy downs and get a prospective buyer into a monthly payment they can afford is working. They’re basically using that methodology to get a payment and then go from the payment to a selection of house based on that payment and that’s working. So that’s encouraging for the fourth quarter at least to stay at a stable rate and really only be affected by seasonality.

Trey Grooms: Okay. Got it. Thanks for that. And then, the full digital rollout coming up soon, any color on how that plays into your scenario analysis for next year that you rolled out?

Peter Jackson: It’s pretty modest in the first year. It’s in the hundreds of millions of sales, but we’ve certainly got a lot of focus in the organization on the initial adoption, the communication and getting it into the hands of both our side of our sales people and leadership, as well as our customers. But so far, the feedback’s been great. We’re really pleased with the tools and the development successes. We’re meeting milestones and feeling really good about the product that we’re going to have to show the market and we’re excited that the market’s going to be able to benefit from the tools to improve efficiency and take costs out.

Dave Rush: The development is right on track. We had a preview this week, in fact, of some of the features and that continued to be wowed by our development team. But it’s changed, it’s not only changed for the customers we’re going to introduce it to, but it’s changed for our people. And we want to make sure we do this the right way, the prudent way, methodically, making sure the adoption goes the way we want, because we really only get one bite at this apple. And we want to make sure that what we do is the best way for us to ensure success. But what we’re showing people, you’re going to be impressed by. I can’t wait for you guys to see it when you get to it live.

Trey Grooms: Okay. Looking forward to it. Thanks for taking my questions and keep up the good work. Thank you.

Peter Jackson: Thanks, Trey.

Operator: And we have our next question from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank.

Joe Ahlersmeyer: Thanks, everybody. Quickly on the 2024 scenarios, I’m just wondering if you could add some context on the revenue assumptions here, because if you take the single-family starts numbers and kind of take that on your base business revenue, your output on sales would be much higher than that and I get there’s other things in there. You’re giving the commodity assumptions, though, and I don’t think M&A is that significant carryover into next year and you’re talking about multifamily down. So what I guess I’m getting to is there seems to be sort of like a mid-single-digit type outperformance to the starts volume. Wondering if you could just touch on whether you think that’s actual price or if you’re baking in some outperformance versus that volume?

Peter Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. I guess the short answer is we are expecting some outperformance. But if I just could re-baseline on the key components. Single-family up, multifamily down on the normalization. The two big drivers there, obviously, continued normalization in both the sales and the margins in those displaced areas. Multifamily, those categories where we saw some out-earning, that’s certainly happening. But we are confident in our ability to take share and see growth based on what we’ve been able to deliver and the investments we’ve made.

Joe Ahlersmeyer: That’s great. Very encouraging. And then you mentioned sort of getting these ranges from economists’ discussions. What about your discussions for 2024 with the large builders and even small and regional builders? And then just wondering if you could touch on any differences in outlook between those two groups into next year?

Dave Rush: Well, the smaller builders don’t have the access to rate buydowns that the larger builders have had and that’s really the main differentiating factor. Interestingly enough, it’s a small percentage of the total market, but there’s a marked increase in cash buyers, which is a big part of what’s going to keep the smaller guys going as well. I think it’s still, the word is, I would use it stable. Again, I don’t think it’ll be robust from a standpoint of every — all the macroeconomic uncertainty getting resolved. But the demand is clearly there. I mean, I think that’s what’s carried us through with all the headwinds that we’ve faced as an industry in the last six months. The — I think it’s been a ultimate proof point that the long-term demand is there. So as far — as long as we can keep that affordability equation in check, I think that it’ll be a stable environment and that’s what we’re hearing from our larger customers.

Joe Ahlersmeyer: Very good. Thanks a lot, everyone.

Peter Jackson: Thanks, Joe.

Operator: And we have our next question from Keith Hughes with Truist.