We recently published a list of 10 Best Big-Name Stocks to Buy Right Now According to Short Sellers. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) stands against the other big name stocks.
In early April 2024, Goldman Sachs Inc.’s data revealed that short selling on individual US-listed stocks was at the highest level in 6 months, and the most targeted sectors were technology, telecom, and media. This increase in short positions was seen after the significant ~9% advance seen in 1Q 2024 for the S&P 500. As per the data, some hedge funds that were using long-short equity strategies have started to fight the rally.
During extreme market volatility, short selling has become pronounced and has drawn significant interest from institutional and retail investors. It has prompted regulatory intervention as new reporting requirements have been issued by the SEC to offer transparency and ensure the availability of short position data.
Recent Trends in Short Selling
In the 2Q 2024, the US and Canadian markets saw an increase of ~$58 billion in short interest or a rise of 5.1% from the previous quarter.
Recently, S3 Partners, a renowned tracker of short-interest data, reported that the sectors that saw the largest increases in short exposure in 2Q 2024 included information technology (a rise of $49.3 billion), communication services (at $11.2 billion), and utilities (a rise of $3.7 billion) from the previous quarter. The sectors that saw the largest decrease in short exposure were the energy and financial sectors, down $12.3 billion and $1.6 billion, respectively.
Earlier in 2024, a significant surge in the leading AI giant resulted in losses of ~$3 billion for the short sellers. Some market experts even described this as an “AI-generated nightmare.”
In global equities, short interest climbed during July 2024, with strong increases seen throughout the Automobile (+13bps), REITs (+11bps), and Consumer Durables (+11bps) sectors, reported S&P Global. On the other hand, the largest decreases were in the Financial Services (-10bps) and Real Estate Management and Development (-4bps) sectors.
Talking about the US equities, the average short interest decreased to 77 basis points during July 2024. Significant increases in short interest were seen throughout REITs (+6 basis points) and the Household and Personal Products (+8 basis points) sectors. Conversely, the largest declines were in the Financial Services (-15 basis points) and the Automobile (-9 basis points) sectors.
Heavily Shorted Stocks Might Not Always Be in Distress, Says S3 Partners
S3 Partners revealed that there is a relatively weak correlation between short positions in certain assets and distress measures. This means that not all heavily shorted stocks are facing difficulties. As per the firm, broader market sentiments and valuation concerns are some of the factors that can drive short interest.
The company believes that shorting an asset can form part of broader strategies or hedging activities not linked to distress. It mentioned that there can be 3 measures of bearishness for stocks —- average analyst ratings (From 1 to 5), Credit default swap (CDS) spreads, and Altman Z-Score.
For example, the US Dollar had a low short position of ~1.32%. However, it had a high CDS spread of 1000 basis points. This indicates high perceived distress on the currency even though there is minimal short interest. This can be because of factors such as currency market dynamics or investor sentiments.
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A technician working at a magnified microscope, developing a new integrated circuit.
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 130
Short % of Shares Outstanding (August 15, 2024): 1.09%
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) offers semiconductor products. It provides cable modems, filter amplifiers, networking processors, storage adapters, motion control encoders, optocouplers, and other related products.
The boom in data center construction, as there is a pressing need to harness power for several Al applications, should continue to benefit Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO). It continues to see elevated demand for its high-performance connectivity solutions and server storage products. This trend is reflected in its 2Q 2024 results, with revenue from Al products surpassing ~$3 billion. Apart from this, the company’s results were supported by the increased adoption of VMware cloud software stack solutions.
In its 2Q 2024 results, the company highlighted that its infrastructure software revenue accelerated, with more enterprises adopting its VMware software stack to develop their own private clouds.
Moving forward, Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)’s potential for revenue and earnings growth stems from the intangible assets in chip design along with switching costs for software products. It offers diversified investment opportunities across both semiconductor and software. The company’s Al opportunity appears to be broad and spans across networking and computing. The integration of VMware product SKUs, together with a simplified go-to-market strategy, continued to support its 2Q 2024 results. The company signed up ~3,000 of its top 10,000 customers for VMware products.
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) raised its FY 2024 guidance for consolidated revenue to $51 billion and adjusted EBITDA to 61% of its revenues. Analysts at Truist Financial increased their price target on shares of the company from $156.60 to $204.50. They gave a “Buy” rating on 13th June.
Mar Vista Investment Partners, LLC, an investment management company, released second quarter 2024 investor letter. Here is what the fund said:
“During the quarter, we established new investments in Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Meta Platforms. We initiated a position in Broadcom in Q2. As a skilled aggregator, Broadcom acquires firms, streamlines their operations, and invests R&D dollars in mission critical products that generate industry leading profit margins, robust cash flows and high returns on invested capital. Its primary markets include AI accelerators targeting generative AI applications, networking & wireless semiconductors, and mission-critical infrastructure software solutions.
Broadcom is well-positioned to benefit from the rapidly expanding demand for custom AI accelerator chips that support the evolution of the generative AI market. The company is the second-largest producer of AI accelerator chips behind Nvidia and leads the market in custom AI ASIC chips. Its customers include leading hyper scalers like Alphabet and Meta who are turning to Broadcom for custom silicon due to its performance and cost advantages. We believe the company is a direct beneficiary of a multi-year capital cycle driven by hyper scalers building out next-generation AI factories.
Broadcom recently acquired VMware, the leader in virtualization software targeting the enterprise market. The integration of VMware is tracking ahead of plan as management has simplified its product bundles, transitioned to a subscription revenue model, and reduced operating costs. We believe this simplified go-to-market structure will result in strong top-line revenue growth and expanding operating margins. We believe Broadcom will compound intrinsic value per share in the mid-20% range over the intermediate term as it benefits from the AI-infrastructure build-out, a cyclical recovery in its legacy semiconductor business, and modestly accelerating growth from its infrastructure software business as VMware is successfully integrated.”
Overall AVGO ranks 6th on our list of the best big name stocks to buy according to short sellers. While we acknowledge the potential of AVGO as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some deeply undervalued AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a deeply undervalued AI stock that is more promising than AVGO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
