Wall Street sometimes seems unreasonable or unfair. The reaction to Broadcom Corporation (NASDAQ:BRCM)‘s Q4 results serves as a perfect example. The company posted in-line results with soft guidance, and the stock went up. Meanwhile, the Street was quick to punish VMware, Inc. (NYSE:VMW) and Riverbed Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:RVBD) with 20%-plus plunges in market cap for similar infractions. Broadcom essentially was excused. But was it deserved?
Investors in Broadcom are thanking their lucky stars, while those holding shares in beaten-down companies wonder what just happened. It seems unfair, but not all disappointments are the same. In that regard, Broadcom deserved the pass it received. The company will be the first to say it can do better. And that seems to be what the Street believes will happen. That said, although Q4 was not up to the company’s usual standards, it was far from a disaster.
The company had already revised guidance back in December, so there were no bombshells in the quarter, which was essentially why the stock held steady. VMware and others should take notice. As expected, Broadcom posted a 14% year-over-year increase in revenue. However, that it declined 2% sequentially was a concern, especially since QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) grew 32% revenue from the prior quarter, while growing chip revenue 34%.
Nonetheless, this wasn’t enough to incite fear. This is even though Qualcomm stole some market share in one of Broadcom’s most important businesses — mobile/wireless — which comprises almost 50% of Broadcom’s revenue. And although the 16% year-over-year increase was impressive, it shed 1% from Q3. In comparison, Infrastructure and networking was the company’s strongest segment, growing 21% year over year.
This has been one of the reasons that I’ve always considered Broadcom an attractive buyout candidate. Its infrastructure and networking segment, which makes up 22% of the company’s gross revenue, should appeal to a company like Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO), which has struggled lately with its own hardware segments. And although the Broadcom’s broadband segment was up only 1% sequentially, it was nonetheless the only segment that grew from the prior quarter. Then again, 10% annual growth was soft by the company’s own standards.
However, I had a mixed view about profitability. Even though non-GAAP gross margin was up 1.7% year over year, it was 25 basis points short of Street estimates. But management did well offsetting this deficiency in operating expenses, which arrived $10 million lower sequentially. Likewise, non-GAAP operating income grew 16% year over year.
Soft guidance arrived with strong demand
Aside from Qualcomm, which issued its typical “beat-and-raise” quarter, there’s been broad weakness within the entire sector, including lowered guidance from Texas Instruments Incorporated (NASDAQ:TXN). So investors were chewing their nails in anticipation of what Broadcom had to say. Management expects Q1 revenue to arrive at $1.9 billion. There was also the famous “give or take” caveat at 4%.
My math says that the low-end would arrive at $1.82 billion, or flat year over year. The high-end would be $1.97 billion, and would represent 8.2% year-over-year growth. But it also suggest a 5% sequential drop. In that regard, management said it expected all segments to trend lower from Q4. Plus, with Broadcom being one of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)‘s component suppliers, analysts had ample time to make adjustments, given that Apple’s Q1 unit shipments fell short of expectations by more than 2 million.
