Extrapolating current spot rates. We anticipate currency translation to be a 3% headwind on full-year adjusted profit from operations growth. Beyond 2024, we expect to progressively improve our delivery to 3% to 5% organic revenue growth, and mid-single digit profit from operations growth on an organic basis, and at constant rate by 2026. Finally, as we continue our transformation journey, we are focused on the importance of disciplined capital allocation and strong shareholder returns. We remain fully committed to a progressive dividend, and have announced a 2% increase this year, and once the middle of our leverage range is reached, we will evaluate all opportunities to sustainably return excess cash to our shareholders. With that, I will hand back to Tadeu.
Tadeu Marroco: Thank you, Javed. I would like you to take away two key messages from our presentation so far this morning. First, we have taken significant action to sharpen our execution and we are making strong progress. And second, whilst we are facing some challenges, our performance remains resilient, reflecting the benefits of our broad portfolio. I would now like to spend a few moments outlining the opportunity and pathway ahead for BAT. And why it’s going to deliver strong outcomes for our shareholders. First, the Nicotine market is growing. Based on our estimates using the latest industry data and trends, New Category revenue will be incremental to Combustibles. And going forward New Category volume will offset the decline in Combustibles as smokers continue to switch to smokeless products.
As a result, the quality of our top-line growth will be much improved as it will be volume driven. Our multi-category strategy is the right way to access this growing market. Consumers are choosing different alternatives to cigarettes. Markets and consumers are not homogeneous. And no single solution is capable of meeting all consumer preference. In addition, data shows that as you move into higher tar markets, for example Canada and the U.S., there is a much higher penetration with Vapour. And Heated Products stand a greater chance of success, in lower cigarette strength markets. Japan is a clear example of this. Executing on multi-category will deliver on our A Better Tomorrow purpose. We are committed to our new vision to Build a Smokeless World and to become a predominantly smokeless business with 50% of our revenue in smokeless products by 2035.
By deploying our global multi-category portfolio we can actively encourage smokers to Switch to Better. To enable this, we have refined our Group strategy. To ensure a clear line of sight across the entire organization. Anchored on three strategic pillars. Quality Growth, Sustainable Future, and Dynamic Business that support the achievement of our goals. My six areas of focus for sharper execution, that I outlined earlier, are already fully aligned to these broader strategic pillars. And our newly launched values are a key enabler for the entire business, forming the core of who we are as BAT. Our performance will be measured across each strategic pillar. We will continue to work on refining these measures and targets, and to further align our proposals in our remuneration policy review this year.
I look forward to sharing more details at a later date. I am confident in the progression of our financial performance. The drivers of our growth will evolve through time as new categories become a greater percentage of our business. The range reflect expected CAGR growth throughout the period, rather than annual targets. Our adjusted profit from operations growth will be enabled by increasing scale benefits driving New Category contribution margin, and Combustibles cost efficiencies driving positive operational leverage. This will enable Group margin to remain at a high level. We will continue to provide guidance on an annual basis, as our transformation evolves. This growth algorithm supports our 50% Smokeless revenue ambition by 2035 and we expect Smokeless revenue to reach around one-third of our Group revenue by 2030.
In conclusion, 2023 was a year of resilient financial performance in line with our guidance. There is no doubt. There is more to do. We are sharpening our execution to navigate our near-term market challenges and set the business up for a stronger future. The targeted investment choices we are making in 2024 are building the foundations for long-term growth and value creation. There is an exciting opportunity ahead with growing nicotine industry value driven by New Categories. And we are now seeing the evidence that our multi-category strategy will deliver long-term profitable growth. We are committed to rewarding shareholders throughout our transformation, driven by enhanced financial flexibility, disciplined capital allocation and strong shareholder returns.
So we will now be joined on stage by Victoria for the questions-and-answer session. And Javed and I will be very happy to take your questions.
Victoria Buxton: Thank you, Tadeu, and good morning, everyone. [Operator Instructions]. We will first be taking questions from the telephone lines.
Operator: Thank you. We have our — Richard Felton of Goldman Sachs. Richard, please go ahead. Your line is open.
Richard Felton: Good morning. Thanks very much. So just two questions for me please. The first one is on the U.S. Vapour category. I appreciate it’s maybe difficult to put a precise number on it, but can you share any color on how quickly you think the overall U.S. Vapour category is growing that’s across both the illicit and the tracked channels, please. Then my second question is on U.S. Combustibles. Thanks very much for sharing the encouraging data points on BAT’s relative performance in the market. But overall, the category does still remain under a bit of pressure and we’re seeing larger volume declines than has been the case historically. So I know there’s lots of moving parts, there’s illicit Vapour, macros are tough, there’s still some COVID unwind.
But as you think about the U.S. Combustible market from a medium term perspective, what do you see as the normalized rates of volume declines? And then given BAT’s commercial strategy, your outlook on pricing in that market, do you still see U.S. Combustibles as a source of EBIT growth? Thank you.
