So we have — I wouldn’t call it a recovery in the case of corn, we have different profit levels. In the case of cotton, it is leveraged due to the growth of income around the world. And cotton, even with the pandemic is — has less growth. In the case of cotton, the way I see this, there is competition with synthetic fibers. I believe that oil at $80, $90 will make cotton advantages. It cannot compete with corn and soybean. When you look at the capital invested, cotton with a margin of 4,500, 5,000 per hectare. So when you look at the investments, it’s 30%. When you look at soybean, you’re also talking about R$4,000 with a lower investment. So I will tell you that to help you in your forecast, soybean 30%, 40%. Now corn, second crop six years ago had no margin, and now we have a margin of almost half, half, half of the margin of soybean.
This year was even better. This year corn was similar — very similar to soybean and cotton. Now, sugarcane, I’m optimistic in the medium and long-term with the carbon footprint. Ethanol we know is better. So when people buy fuel, they buy ethanol. It’s a clean fuel and this is being seen all over the world. So the ethanol market is important. Another important point for sugarcane, another thing that is important that I see in sugar, we see important players, sugar producers using part of the production for ethanol, you have the mixture of 20%. Other countries are also using ethanol. We have an inventory of sugar. We have an inventory of sugar. The world has sugar for one month, so inventories are tight. Corn also inventory is tight around the world.
We have a consumption of 1.170 billion and a consumption of 1.60 soybean too. I can see in the short-term, the same prices. I can see the same prices in the near-term; we have to look also at the exchange rate. All this has agreed influence, especially the exchange rate. So we’re imagining that the exchange rate will be R$4.9 to R$5 per dollar.
Ana Ribeiro: We have a question from Julia . What’s your vision in terms of the price for sugar and ethanol?
Andre Guillaumon: The million dollar question, Julia. That’s difficult. Even with a crystal ball, I can’t — well, we have to look at the basis and then we see what we can expect. If you look at ethanol, we see Brazil growing production all the time. Brazil in ethanol, 27 billion liters of ethanol, Brazil with ethanol from corn 4.5 billion, ethanol from corn billion liters. We saw an important growth. When we look every year, the growth of almost a billion liters in one year growth. And we see also exports — ethanol exports that are now higher and higher. This year we exported 2.5 billion liters of ethanol. So we’re beginning to position ourselves as a country that exports ethanol. When I look at this, you can see a more regular price because you have domestic market that is very strong and an export market demanding Brazilian ethanol.
In the case of sugarcane, when we look at India. India, the fluctuations we have in the regions sugar unfortunately without Brazil, it’s produced in monsoon climate regions. They are very erratic. These other regions outside Brazil, one year, a lot of rainfall, another year without rainfall and sugarcane depends on this. So it’s a product that is always with highs and lows. Now, but you also — sugar is the cheapest energy in the world. When we look on a worldwide level, we see still regions with a lot of poverty. Sugar is very important in some countries for food. So when we look at all of this, we see ethanol becoming, growing and becoming interesting. We see sugar linked to climate fluctuations and a new driver. Some new countries producing ethanol.
If we look at historical prices, I would expect historical prices higher than in the last 10 years for these two commodities. But we have annual fluctuations too.
