In refining, we expect to drive greater competitiveness and value through our digitization and business improvement plans, including maintaining Solomon first quartile net cash margin. In Bioenergy, we expect to more than double our biofuels coprocessing volumes to around 20,000 barrels per day in 2025, investing in our advantaged refining portfolio. In biogas, we started about 5 gas plants in 2023, and Archaea expects to start up between 15 to 20 new plants per year through 2025. In convenience and EV charging, we plan to deliver EBITDA of more than $1.5 billion in 2025. In convenience, we are focused on the rollout of strategic convenience sites supported by customer offers, strategic partnerships and digital investments and integrating TravelCenters of America, realizing deal synergies and expect to grow EBITDA to around $800 million in 2025 with convenience, a significant contributor.
In EV charging, we plan to grow energy sales across our 4 key markets and expect to deliver positive EBITDA in 2025. In Castrol, we expect to drive EBITDA through volume growth, cost efficiencies and emerging new business areas. In hydrogen and renewables and power, we will remain disciplined and focused on value creation, establishing the capabilities and foundations for scalable and integrated businesses in the decades to come. Our recent announcement of the acquisition of Lightsource bp is a great example. We will continue to leverage the benefits of our integrated business model. We are advancing our technology and innovation agenda, moving past pilots and use cases to building our own custom generative AI products, and we are getting into the hands of our global workforce.
And our world-class trading business will continue to be the core of integrated and optimizing across our energy value chains to deliver higher margins and lower emissions. All in service are our target to grow EBITDA to $46 billion to $49 billion in 2025. Let me then sum up what you’ve heard and we’ll get to your questions. 4 years in, our destination is unchanged. IOC to IEC, and we remain confident in the strategy. At its core is a laser-like focus on growing the value of bp, and underpinning this, we’re going to be focused on 6 near-term priorities: first, improving safety, our first priority and reducing emissions. Second, driving further focus into the business. That means actively managing our portfolio and continued high grading and focusing on activities that create the most value.
Third, delivering the next wave of efficiency, an area where I see a huge opportunity. For example, using global capability centers and our industry-leading digitization and technology expertise to increase margin and decrease spend. What some of you saw in Denver is just the tip of the iceberg, and we are now deploying that capability into the downstream. These efficiencies will feed into our fourth priority, that is progressing the next set of growth projects that we expect to sanction across the next 2 years. These projects provide growth through the end of the decade and into the next. And fifth, as you heard from Kate, we have disciplined investment allocation at the core of our financial frame, which is focused on optimizing return on capital employed.
And finally, our sixth priority, we remain committed to growing shareholder returns including now returning at least 80% of surplus cash flow to shareholders through share buybacks. We know exactly what we need to do, and some of the key measures are up on the slide. You can monitor our progress quarter-to-quarter as we drive to 2025. In conclusion, we’re investing in today’s oil and gas system and building out tomorrow’s all in service of growing the value of BP. The direction is the same, but we’re going to deliver as a simpler, more focused, higher value company that pragmatically adapts with demand and societal needs. And we look forward to updating you as we move through the year. With that, Kate, and I will be delighted to take your questions.
Thank you.
A – Craig Marshall: No questions online yet. Let’s see, where should we start. Michele, why don’t we start with you, please. Limit yourself to 2 questions, please, if you can. That wasn’t directed personally at you, Michele.
Unidentified Analyst: Of course. It will only be two. And congratulations on the strong results. Two questions, if I may. The first one, when you talk about an A range credit metrics through the cycle, is there a simplistic way to bring it down to a net debt level that you would like to achieve in the course of the coming years? And my second question is on the transition growth engines. Clearly, you’ve got a very ambitious target in terms of EBITDA in 2025. It’s more than a tripling of EBITDA, which goes well beyond the volume growth. I was wondering if you could help us a bit more understand where that increase in EBITDA margins would come from? Is it cost? Is it price? Is it cost-cutting and integration of the likes of Lightsource bp?
Murray Auchincloss: Fantastic. Thanks, Michele. I’ll take the second question first, and then Kate, I’ll hand over to you for the balance sheet question. On the TGs, yes, it’s an aggressive growth profile from around $1 billion in 2023 to $3 billion to $4 billion by 2025. If you think about what we’ve done over the past few years, we’ve bought an awful lot of companies and now need to bring them in, standardize them and drive that growth through them. So the march from $1 billion to $3 billion to $4 billion, it starts with Archaea. We went slow on purpose to get the design right for rapid replication. We’re now in action. We’ve got 5 plants online. We’ll do 4 or 5 a quarter now, marching forward over the next 8 quarters. In TravelCenters of America, we brought it in.
