Biraj Borkhataria: It’s Biraj from RBC. Two questions, please. First one, in the upstream. Could you just clarify whether or what role, if any, exploration success has in your plans to 2025 and 2030. And so related to that, on the inorganic side, most of the inorganic activity acquisitions wise has been on low carbon last couple of years. And I don’t want to make Gordon’s Life even harder, but are you open to inorganic bolt-ons in the upstream? And how you’re thinking about that within the constraints of the framework? And then second question is going back to LNG. So last quarter, Murray, you highlighted the big working capital outflow because of the margining. If I’m thinking about hedging through summer, the 2023 price was actually way above the price cap, which was then implemented. So how does that price cap impact 2023, if at all, in the LNG business?
Bernard Looney: Fantastic. Okay. Thank you, Biraj. Carol, I’ll ask you to lead off on price caps for Murray, as you guys debated. Carol, go for it on price caps and hedging. And then Gordon is exploration success built into your plan? Do you need it? And are you going to come to Murray and I with a bunch of money to go and buy oil and gas assets when you’ve got 18 billion barrels of your own . Go ahead, Carol.
Carol Howle: So talking about the European market correction mechanism. So we’re working through that. I mean there are a number of nuances around that. In terms of it has to be over a certain number of days, and then there also has to be a certain delta in terms of when that actual cap gets triggered. I think the whole market is working through that at the moment. Do we think in any way that it impacts our ability to manage our portfolio? No. We do have other opportunities. We’ve got opportunities directly, bilaterals. We’ve also got opportunities in terms of different structures that we can use. Our role is to make sure that we’ve got the optionality. We’re being proactive around managing that risk, and with Murray’s support and treasury support. That is certainly what we did last year in terms of getting ahead of some of these changes in the market.
Bernard Looney: Thank you, Carol, Gordon?
Gordon Birrell: Yes. On exploration, the 2030 outcome is influenced by exploration success by a very small way. What do I mean by that? We have exploration success built into the 18 billion barrels, but on a risk basis, we take the exploration risk, and the reason we’ve done that is we have some pretty rich, what we call ILX, infrastructure-led exploration opportunities, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, in the North Sea and in Egypt, which if they come in will become part of the fast tieback opportunity set, but to emphasize and to answer the question, they’re all risk within the 18 billion barrels. So that’s a very small impact on the outcome in 2030.
Bernard Looney: Not relying on it.
Gordon Birrell: Not relying on it. It’s a simple answer on that. And then am I going to come and ask for money to buy inorganic. The answer is a qualified yes. where it’s a natural — where it’s a natural fit in the portfolio. Are we going to go buy something way outside our current portfolio, we’re outside our heartlands that we have in our company. No, that doesn’t make any sense. Other companies can go and do that. Where there’s a natural bolt on and we could add more value having it in our portfolio than we think anyone else could and it meets the criteria of contributing to low carbon and low cost and security of supply, then of course, we would consider that.
Bernard Looney: Very good. I mean I think we used to call it smart M&A or commercial deals. Aker BP instead of exiting Norway, we created Aker BP. Aker BP then went and bought Lundin Aker BP operated by other production from Johan Sverdrup alone. It’s 250,000 barrels a day. It’s a pretty extraordinary company now that was created. Instead, we could have exited Angola, maybe, but we didn’t. We wanted to stay. We wanted to grow. We’ve created Azul Energy. So think about it as I think you may see us doing some smart M&A, commercial deals, partnerships, things that make sense in that space. We’ll go ahead, go for it. Craig, are you okay to run on a little bit here, 15 more minutes or not.
Craig Marshall: I’m not. But yes, we can go into the 15 minutes.
Bernard Looney: I think we said while we’re going. So we’ll go 15 more minutes, and then we’ll let you guys have a break, and we’ll have time outside. Go ahead.
Peter Low: Peter Low from Redburn. Yes, the first question, you’ve announced an increase in spending today across the oil and gas and the renewable and low carbon piece. I think it’s probably fair to say you’re seeing inflationary cost pressures in both. How are you managing that? And kind of what inflation assumptions are embedded within the CapEx budget? And then the second question was just on kind of the 2030 renewable power targets. So the 50 gigawatts and the 10 gigawatts. Can you just explain the difference between those 2? Is a lot of it going to be under construction? Or will you be farming it down? Some color on that would be helpful.
Bernard Looney: Fantastic. Murray, first of all, just general CapEx/inflation, and then Anja.
Murray Auchincloss: Inflation is — continues to be pretty low for us. You’ll remember, back in 2022, we had about 10% inflation inside the Lower 48 Gordon. Since then, for 2023, we’ve gone out and let longer-term contracts, and we’ve seen deflation as opposed to inflation. So it’s not really featuring as a material issue across the upstream I think in low carbon, there’s really no change from previous guidance around 5% inflation is what we saw in the offshore wind platform. There’s more inside solar but solar self-funding inside BP — inside Lighters BP, so that doesn’t impact the overall balance sheet. So despite the extraordinary environment we’ve been through the past couple of years, these guys have done a tremendous job working with supply chain to mitigate those supply chain effects. And I wouldn’t expect them to not continue to do that in the future.
Bernard Looney: Great, Anja, 15 and 10?
Unidentified Company Representative: 15, 10, we said 15 gigawatts to FID. And as I said, we’ll be very selective in terms of where we allocate CapEx because it has to ultimately make sense, create integration value and as such a superior return and derisk because you don’t have access to green electrons everywhere around the planet. So 50 to FID, 10 will be in operations, hold it another 10 in construction. And then the rest is farm downs. A lot of the 50 will come from Lightsource BP, which is a develop and sell model very, very attractive, very stable. But we will also farm down on, let’s say, for example, offshore wind assets, et cetera, because ultimately, what we want is access to the green electron and the high-grading opportunity, and we don’t need to necessarily control 100% of the asset.
Bernard Looney: Excellent. Thank you, Anja. Martin, sorry. These photographs guys, you need to update your photographs because Os is the only person who hasn’t aged
Martijn Rats: All right. Wonderful. Well, so slightly conceptual, but I was wondering the $8 billion in oil and gas in sort of today’s environment. It’s not entirely sort of obvious. And so a lot of technical questions have already been asked about it. But I was wondering how the internal sort of decision-making process came about to sort of got you there. what the milestones or the sign post along the way were where you say you have really like we need to do this? Was this just simply about oil and gas prices or European energy crisis or whatever it might be. The second thing I wanted to ask you is about the assets that you now intend to retain a little bit longer. And I’m sure you’re not going to spell those out for us. But I was wondering if you could perhaps talk about whether they have a sort of shared characteristic as in the assets that you’re now likely to retain longer?
Is it oil? Is it gas? Is it offshore? Is it onshore, East Hemisphere, Western Hemisphere, where there’s some common denominator that we can sort of work with. And then finally, if I can throw in a third one, given the way things going, I mean could you stay in the building?
