Emma Delaney: Yes, great. Thanks for the question. So in our EV business, as you know, we have a very focused strategy. We’re focused on fleets, and we’re focused on fast charging on the go. And just to give you a sense of the balance of that, we probably expect about 70% today as we look at our business, 70% to come from on the go, fast charging, 30% from fleets. And we’ve really built capability over the last number of years now more than 500 people really working on deploying into both of those core focus , and it’s working. So power energy sales up 2.5x, utilization is up in every market where we operate. And it’s clear that for the — on the fast charging side, customers in the U.K. where you have a choice between fast and slow, customers choose fast 5x more frequently than slow.
So we’re really seeing a play into this fast charging on the go. We’re investing in this business today, of course, and it will turn earnings positive, some chunky earnings coming from that by 2025. So — we’re looking forward to that. fleets, in particular, what I like about fleets is we have a really sizable fleet business today, 170,000 customers around the world. Those customers and corporates have made commitments to decarbonize and the vectors energy vectors they need to decarbonize will be a multitude of energy vectors, all the way from biofuels, which is near-term decarbonization through EV Charging and EV Charging and trucks who would have thought 5 years ago that you’d have a 19-ton truck that can be run on electricity. And we’re playing into that market with some specific investments which we’ve made in Germany, where the truck — EV trucks are already taking off.
So I think fleets for us really offer an opportunity to play into a number of our areas, and we’re really looking forward to seeing what this business brings in the next couple of years.
Bernard Looney: Thanks, Emma. Let’s go to Irene, and then after that, guys will go to a couple of questions online. So Irene?
Irene Himona: Irene Himona, Société Générale. My first question on the framework. And congratulations on the numbers, first of all, and you have upgraded EBITDA targets very materially, partly because of the increase to your Brent from — but of course, you continue to guide on a 4% dividend increase based on $60 for consistency. But how should we think around that 4%? What does it grow to in your new framework of $70, please? And my second question, back to Convenience and mobility. Obviously, we focused on EV Charging. Can you give us some insight on the conventional part of that business. So for example, is Castrol lubricants finally delivering the long-awaited potential that we think it has.
Bernard Looney: Great. Irene, thank you. Murray, we’ll kick off with you, and then we’ll go to Emma on the non-EV charging part of the business.
Murray Auchincloss: Yes. For consistency, we stuck with guidance at $60 to guidance points, $4 billion on buybacks at $60 million and the capacity to grow the dividend at 4% per annum at 60%. That’s what we’ve chosen to do. If you’d like to figure out what it looks like at 70%, we’ve got our rules of thumb, they work pretty well. They have worked pretty well over the past 3 years. So I just use the rules of thumb to guide you towards $70, but I’m not giving specific guidance on different price decks. Too many things moving around to do that. So we’ll just stick with our guidance at $60.
Bernard Looney: Great. Thank you, Murray, and Emma?
Emma Delaney: Yes. Thanks, Irene. As I look at the fuels and Castrol part of the business, so non-EV, non-convenience part of the business for 2022, a number of headwinds there that we’ve been working against, so particularly ForEx, cost inflation, we saw during 2022. Nonetheless, some really bright spots. So aviation record year. Americas did really well. But nonetheless, some of the volume numbers in 2022 are still 8% behind COVID. So I think plenty of recovery is still to come in the base there, and we’ve seen some of that recovery in some of the businesses, some of the regions come through. And I’ll just point out Convenience, which is inextricably linked actually to our fuels retail business because most of our Convenience today exists on our existing retail network and some stellar performance there despite tricky trading conditions.
So 9% gross margin increase over the last 3 years and particularly in the Americas per annum, yes. And particularly in the Americas, if I look at AMPM 12 years of sales growth in that franchise, 2, 20% growth in Food for Now, which is a high-margin category. And even in the U.K., increased sales in Germany, we’ve been rolling out a partnership called Rave to Go. We see sales there, 1.5x sales on the competitor sites. So I think a lot in the Convenience side, which is inextricably linked to the fuel still some recovery to come actually, which is all to play for as we really recover out of COVID. You mentioned Castrol, I think Castrol has seen particularly in cash flow business, unprecedented headwinds over the last 3 years, base oil has affected them, in particular, additive shortages and ForEx, as I mentioned earlier.
But nonetheless, and we’re not yet where we need to be and where we want to be in Castrol, but we do have a new CEO in place in Castrol and a clear plan to get after Castrol’s recovery.
Bernard Looney: Great. Thank you very much, Emma. Let’s go to the line, and we go to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs, and then we’ll go to Paul Cheng at Scotiabank. So Michele?
Michele Della Vigna: Congratulations on the very strong quarter. Two questions, if I may. The first one on you have 1 of the best growth in the industry in terms of new supply coming on in 2023 and 2024. You took a major hedging position in Q3, which looking back, looks very well timed. I was wondering if you could give us an idea of how much of the extra LNG supply has actually been locked in, in terms of pricing for the next 2 years? And related to that, you had a $7 billion working capital build because of that in Q3. I was wondering how much of that actually unwound already in Q4 and how much is still to be expected for the next 2 years? And then if I can have a second question. We had a major new ESG disclosure coming through in Europe this year, which is the EU Green taxonomy.
I was just wondering out of what you call transition growth engines, which accounts for 25% of your CapEx now going to 50% by 2030. How much of that would you say is taxonomy aligned because I think that’s going to be a major focus out of ESG investors in Europe this year.
Bernard Looney: Kelly, thank you. Murray, working capital bill/release. Carol, how much have you hedged and sold forward, all of that good stuff. And I’m going to ask Julia to comment on the taxonomy We’ll get a microphone in the room. So Murray?
Murray Auchincloss: Yes. So if you go back to 3Q guidance, what we told you is that we expected $7 billion of working capital release from the LNG book, as cargoes were delivered starting in 3Q ’23, heavily weighted into ’24. That’s what we talked about last quarter. This quarter, we’ve had a $4 billion release in working capital. Some of that did come from that LNG book, given the size of the decrease. And so we had about $2 billion of that release in the quarter out of our $4 billion release. So as you look out to third quarter ’23 through the second quarter of 2024, we’d expect to see around $5 billion of release as those cargoes get delivered. We don’t think it’s tremendously price-sensitive. But when you have a 50% fall in LNG, a lot happens with the IM and VM that’s sitting, and that’s why some of that money came back in the fourth quarter. Carol, over to you.
Carol Howle: Unfortunately, a short answer, I can’t give any guidance on how much we’re hedging or the forward sales because you don’t know I know slightly sensitive. Yes, slightly sensitive. But what I can say is the team has managed the portfolio very well through Q3. We did have below average performance in Q4. That main driver on that was actually Freeport performance risk, but I don’t see any reason why we can’t continue to deliver from that portfolio based on the optionality that we have within it going forward, and I’ll leave it at that.
Bernard Looney: Great. Thanks. And Giulia, quickly on EU taxonomy?
