BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Martin Grunst: Yeah. Why don’t I start on that, Matt? So, I think that the businesses that probably have the greatest opportunity are in the brokerage and trading where we’ve made investments there, and we’ve got great momentum in that business. Fiduciary asset management, I think we’ll have customary growth in that business, plus we think that asset valuations are going to give us a little bit of wind at our backs from an AUM perspective, and that will flow through to new growth rates. And then, mortgage actually has opportunity there, both on the production side and on the servicing side. And so, we expect to see good numbers out of that line of business on a percentage growth perspective.

Scott Grauer: Matt, this is Scott. I think that when you look at that total category, as I mentioned earlier in the call, the thing that we’re pleased about is the fact that we’re not seeing any one component carry the load. If you look at multiple quarters now and the year as a whole, we’re seeing heightened levels, record levels of revenue generation across all the categories of Wealth Management, which, as you know, is very well diversified both by product set, customer set, geographically where we’re serving international market in many of those operating units. So, it’s broadly across the board, where we’ve seen investment — historical investments in our Corporate Trust business, in our asset management business, the trading pieces, as Marty mentioned.

But all of those together and combined are what produces the result that gives us optimism that we’re not dependent upon those Fed rate cuts to continue to see momentum and growth in the business lines. No doubt, if we see, and it’s less about the rate cuts, it’s more about some steepness to the curve benefits the trading businesses because we’ve now been operating on a decade where we didn’t have any slope to the curve which in sense no one to go out. So, if we do see some steepness in the curve, we’ll see, but I think we’re extremely well positioned if that were to shape out.

Matt Olney: Okay. Appreciate the thoughts there, Scott. And then, I guess shifting back over to the rate sensitivity, you provided some good commentary being relatively neutral as far as on the NII. What are your early thoughts on deposit betas in a falling rate scenario, whether it’s back half of the year or next year, whatever that would be? And how would those betas you think compare on the way down versus what we just saw on the way up at the bank?

Martin Grunst: Yeah. So given the fact that over the last couple of quarters, you’ve seen betas be higher. You’re going to see a mirror image of that more or less as we see rates come down in that kind of environment. I mean, as you know, those are not linear, and so you’re not going to get the same exact beta at each rate hike. But you’ll see relatively high betas on the way down given that you’ve got a lot of that beta on the driven upside was the larger corporate and wealth balances.

Matt Olney: Yeah. Okay. Fingers crossed. And then, just lastly on the expense side, I know that the expenses can be lumpy quarter [Technical Difficulty] fourth quarter. And I see the full year guidance. But any color on where we could start off with earlier in the year in the first quarter on the expense side?

Martin Grunst: Yeah. If you take the fourth quarter number, the $384 million and then adjust that for the FDIC special assessment, you get to a $340 million number. So, coming out of the gate next quarter, we’d expect to be a little below that.

Stacy Kymes: Yeah. And as Marty pointed out, Matt, I think it’s important, there’s some BOKFI transaction costs that are embedded in some of those line items in the fourth quarter, particularly related to personnel expense and professional fees that you got to think about is really being part of that sale of that business, not really part of the core run rate of the company.

Martin Grunst: Yeah. So if you think through some of those unusual items and filter some of those out, you’ll get taxes on wages coming up in the first quarter, but that will net down to just a little bit lower.

Matt Olney: Okay. Thanks, everybody.

Stacy Kymes: Thank you, Matt.

Operator: Our next question is from Will Jones with KBW. Please proceed.

Will Jones: Hey, great. Good morning, guys.

Stacy Kymes: Good morning.

Martin Grunst: Good morning, Will.

Will Jones: Hey. Marty, just hoping you could help us unpack the margin story. What it looks like in both this flat rate environment that your guidance is kind of predicated off of? And then maybe what the margin does if we do see two, three, four, even six rate cuts this coming year? I know you talked about compression next quarter, but then maybe a stable NIM in this flat rate environment, but can you see expansion in that scenario? And I guess just to confirm, you all will certainly see NIM expansion if we do get rate cuts. Thanks.

Martin Grunst: Yeah. So, the basic trajectory that we’re expecting is margins basically leveled out a little bit down in the first quarter level and then actually just a little bit up at the end of the year is how we think about it for a flat rate scenario. Of course, plus or minus the usual drivers of noise around that trend. And then, if you’ve got a forward curve kind of scenario playing out, that would be modestly supportive of the margin percentage in those later quarters when that would play out, what the steepness would start to play out.