BOK Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:BOKF) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Peter Winter: Got it. That’s really helpful. And then on a separate question, you did maintain the fee income guidance despite the updated outlook for two rate cuts. The previous guidance was no rate cuts and you had mentioned, like lower rates would actually benefit fee income. So would you lean more towards maybe the upper end of the range now that you’ve got some rate cuts built into your forecast?

Martin Grunst: Yes, Peter, I’d say that we do feel good about the trajectory within that business. Mortgage is certainly, even saw a lift in mortgage and that will be sustainable. That certainly helped by that. The trading businesses are supported by that kind of environment and then the fiduciary businesses are also supported by that environment, just given the asset value impact on asset valuation. So, yes we feel great about that line item.

Peter Winter: And any sense on maybe if it comes in towards the upper end of the range just given now some of the benefits with rate cuts?

Martin Grunst: Yes, I don’t know. I don’t want to put a pinpoint on any particular part of the range, but we’ve certainly got good momentum in those business and we expect that to carry forward through the year.

Scott Grauer: And the only thing I would add, this is Scott is that on the trading front, we’ve settled into kind of an uncertainty period whether we’re going to be looking at rate cuts or not and as you can see from the first quarter, the business levels and the activities continue to be slightly elevated even without the cuts. So we feel good about where we’re positioned, really regardless of the direction that the Fed might take there.

Peter Winter: Got it. Thanks, Scott.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Ben Gerlinger with Citi.

Ben Gerlinger: Hi, good morning.

Stacy Kymes: Good morning, Ben.

Ben Gerlinger: I was just curious in terms of just the — I get the growth kind of numerical fine tuning. Some of your competitors have kind of indicated the back half of the year, whereas others in the same footprint have also said kind of more linear. If you exclude the CRE kind of noise and paydown potential, should we expect growth to be fairly linear from here through the end of the year or is it a little bit more weighted towards the back half?

Stacy Kymes: That’s a tough question to answer. I think, generally speaking, it’s going to be linear more so than weighted in the back half. I think that’s my expectation. But as you know, loan growth is lumpy. You have a month where it’s flat and you have a month where it’s bigger. But over time, that trajectory should be pretty steady and more linear from my perspective than back loaded.

Ben Gerlinger: Got it. That’s helpful. And then I know that you now have two cuts in guidance and at the beginning of the year, we talked about how this quarter is probably the margin trough, and it seems like it should be, but if you kind of look at a little bit of a mosaic here in terms of rate cut potential. If there are no rate cuts, do you have any sense of where the margin might be at the end of the year, assuming your normal mix shift or flows that you’re anticipating?

Martin Grunst: Yes, Ben. So whether we do get those two rate cuts or not, we still think that our margin troughs here and you see some stability here in the middle of the year, and then you get an uptick later in the year. Our benefit that we get out of rate cuts is more from the fact that you get a steeper curve, and that’s something that builds over time. You don’t get a gigantic benefit in one quarter from that. So either way, we see the margin coming up towards the end of the year.

Stacy Kymes: Ben I think that’s the important point, that as you think about us on a go forward basis, think less about rate movements impacting net interest revenue or margin absolutely, because we tend to be pretty neutral from a rate risk perspective. But think more about a steepening of the yield curve. To the extent that there’s a steepening, we’re going to materially benefit from that over time. And so the steepening effect has a much bigger impact to us than the absolute whether rates go up or down on the short end.

Ben Gerlinger: Got it. That’s helpful. I appreciate it. Thanks for your time, guys.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Will Jones with KBW.

Will Jones: Hey, great. Good morning.

Stacy Kymes: Good morning, Will.

Will Jones: Hey, guys. So I wanted to touch on the deposit growth you guys saw this quarter. I mean, it was obviously fairly notable. I was just hoping you could maybe just touch on what went right for you guys in the quarter. I know you call out as well, trying to maybe swap some borrowings and replace with the deposits. Could you just talk us through some of the dynamics that you saw in the quarter and maybe what drove that nice growth?

Stacy Kymes: Yes. So, Will that was us making offers to our existing customer base. And as we’ve talked about before, we have a large portion of our customer base that has both money held on balance sheet of their liquid assets, some of it’s held on balance sheet, and some of that’s held in our broker-dealer or the wealth business, and that we’re able to toggle that back and forth with calling efforts. And so we just did some of that, and that was very fruitful and that just worked out exactly as designed for us.

Will Jones: Okay. And then just with respect to the deposit growth guidance, it feels like maybe a lot of that growth was just pulled forward in the first part of the year here and is the thought that deposit balances maybe just, kind of level out and flat line for the remainder of the year?

Stacy Kymes: Yes, as a general rule, we want to keep deposit growth and loan growth more or less lined up. We are very comfortable with that 70% loan to deposit ratio area, defining that as a broader area. And, and so, yes, it’s reasonable to think that those are going to be kind of in line the rest of the year.