Block, Inc. (NYSE:SQ) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Amrita Ahuja: Sure. Thanks for the question. On monetization rate, what we’ve said in the past, which we’ve reiterated today as well, is that we are now lapping some of the pricing adjustments that we made last year. So, we expect to see greater stability in the monetization rate in Q4 relative to Q3. And as we said from a Q4 guide perspective, we also expect to see a moderation in Cash App’s growth rate in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter as we’re lapping, again, some of those more difficult comparisons from last year. This is on the back though of strong results in the third quarter with — if you look across our inflows framework, strong growth across each of the three aspects of Cash App’s inflows, whether it’s active, which grew 11% year-over-year to 55 million on the back of continued viral growth in our peer-to-peer network mechanisms, or it’s inflows per active, which were $1,132 in the quarter, and we’re up 8% year-over-year, relatively stable with the first half of the year.

Again, this one is really a factor of both our customers’ spending power, as well as their adoption of our products and engagement with our platform. And you see with products like Cash App Card and Cash App Borrow that we’ve been able to build awareness and deepen engagement with those products over time with now 22 million customers on Cash App Cards and strong spend on a year-over-year basis with Cash App Card as well. And then thirdly, monetization rate as you know, which was 1.43% in the third quarter and that was up 8 basis points year-over-year, relatively stable from a quarter-over-quarter standpoint, which, as you noted, that monetization rate excludes the gross profit from our BNPL platform. We do expect, as I noted earlier, that monetization rate to stabilize as we lap the pricing changes over the past year.

Trevor Williams: Got it. Thank you.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Alex Markgraff with KBCM.

Alex Markgraff: Hey. Thanks for taking my question and all the kind of financial targets provided in the Shareholder Letter. Outside of the more explicit Rule of 40 targets, just curious, how we should evaluate some of the progress you’re making on the product side of things and kind of tying the ecosystem together as you’ve laid out priorities in the letter. Is there a north star to kind of orient folks around to kind of follow along with that progress?

Jack Dorsey: I think the biggest one to look at is going to be commerce and it’s going to be through the lens of Cash App that we spent the past few months looking deeply at the Afterpay integration restructuring, that team moving things to Cash App. Because a lot of the value is going to be created there, especially as we bring commerce opportunities, both internet-based and e-commerce-based to local, right to the surface. So that’s probably going to be the most notable in terms of connecting these ecosystems. And as I mentioned before, the second one will be the intersection between Cash App for Business and the Square ecosystem. There’re some obvious connection points there, especially as Cash App for Business customers grow and how they utilize our tools.

And I think a big theme between both ecosystems is going to be around banking use cases, both on the on the Square side and the Cash App side, actually throughout our entire ecosystem and all our business units. But those would be the three that I’d point to watch.

Alex Markgraff: Thanks.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Bryan Keane with Deutsche Bank.

Bryan Keane: Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. I guess, Jack, my question is just when you assess the seller volumes, how much do you feel like it’s pure economic volume that discretionary spend that’s slowing some of the volume versus maybe a competitive pressure from the market that you guys can do a better job at? And then I guess going forward, as the comps get easier, do you factor in a little bit more of an economic slowdown in the fourth quarter if that’s in the guidance? Thank you.

Jack Dorsey: I’ll take the first part of the question. I do believe that by focusing more on the product or features and also getting to parity on particular verticals especially within food and beverage and services, will unlock a lot more growth. There’s been certain features that just blocked us out of conversations from restaurants, for instance. And a lot of those will be unlocked soon with our focus on the platform. And I do believe that we can be much smarter and more efficient with our go-to-market. Most importantly, as we’ve made this move to verticalization, looking for more opportunities to automate through AI, but also to experiment more. I want to make sure that we’re experimenting with things that we had not tried before, smaller scale, so we can see what works, and then make better informed decisions about investing more fully in them.

I think there’s a lot of room there. And that of course has to match what we’re doing when a seller no matter the size gets to our website, gets to our dashboard, and they find something simple, intuitive, and they, most importantly, find all the other products that we offer them, not just the one that came on board for. So, the combination of that I think gets us back to a place of growth that we’ll be very proud of.

Amrita Ahuja: And Bryan, I can help fill in just some of the numbers that we’re seeing in real-time and kind of what’s embedded in our Q4 guide. So, if we look at Square GPV in the third quarter, we grew 11% year-over-year. And again, based on our estimates, we believe excluding the impact from the outage, growth would have been more in line with the second quarter’s growth rate of 12%. Looking at October, we estimate GPV to grow 9% year-over-year. This is obviously — that’s lower than our 11% from the third quarter. This primarily driven from the U.S., as international markets have been more stable. But looking at some of the drivers, if we think about the three high-level components of Square’s growth, customer acquisition, churn, and same-store growth.

We’ve seen stability in churn through this period, but ultimately, our growth is moderated due to both same-store growth and lower contribution from new cohorts of customers. Now we think same-store growth, the slow down there, is relatively in line with broader macro trends across discretionary verticals. And that, as Jack has noted, we have work to do to shift our customer acquisition trends, which the team is laser-focused on. Just to provide maybe a little bit more granularity on the same store growth, when you look at GPV per seller, this is where we believe the recent moderation we’ve seen has been macro-related. Processing volumes at existing sellers were lower in the third quarter compared to the prior year. We believe it’s macro-driven as the recent results that track directionally with other third-party spend indicators that we measure when we adjust for our mix of verticals given our greater mix of discretionary spend.

For instance, we don’t serve grocery or gas as an example. And in October, we saw broad-based softness in consumer spending trends in those discretionary verticals, food and drink and retail. So, we’re watchful here, and these trends are factored into our Q4 guide. Ultimately, a lot of the work that we’re doing to close feature gaps and iterate and experiment and move quickly on our go-to-market is where we expect to see opportunities for growth in the future.