BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Unidentified Analyst: Hi. This is Ivy on for Akash. We have a couple, if we may. So maybe start with the first one. On your COVID guidance, I think Pfizer right now is guiding for full vaccine like penetration of COVID vaccine in the second half of this decade. I think they are guiding around 100 million to 160 million global doses per year going forward. We’re now seeing like the market is making in a much lower demand for vaccines at the current valuation. That’s just — what’s your thoughts on Pfizer’s assumptions? It looks like there’s divergence between your 2023 guide and Pfizer’s, which is like 5 billion versus, I guess, 6.5 billion implied by Pfizer’s guidance? I guess, then it’s like with the increased OpEx spend, you guided this year from around 2 billion in 2022 to greater than 3 billion in 2023. Is this fair for us to assume that COVID vaccines may not be cash generating this year? Thank you.

Ryan Richardson: So I’ll start, and I’m sure Jens will chime in here. So in terms of the comparison to the Pfizer guidance, I would just say that first on the market, I think there was a market part of your question. So I think consistent with what Pfizer has disclosed, we believe that 2023 could be a trough year for the COVID market as it transitions over the course of a couple of years to a sort of steady state, more commercially driven market. And so, you’ve hopefully heard that reflected in our comments today. That won’t happen fully this year because we still have a number of countries — in fact, a majority of countries that are still under government contracts that are still, let’s say, a relic or a follow-on from the pandemic, right?

We do expect some commercial markets to open this year, but that process, again, that transition period will take time. That transition period, we expect could lead to a potential for increased volumes as we transition to that and also increased prices. But again, that could also take some time. And we’ve noted today a couple of drivers — potential drivers over the midterm that could contribute to that growth potential, namely enhanced uptake of COVID-19 vaccines, but also potential follow-on vaccines. Our next-generation vaccines, for example, that are in Phase 1 and/or combination vaccines could be important midterm contributors to that. And maybe on the guidance, again, the guidance comparison point to Pfizer, you’ve highlighted the sort of $12 billion rough Pfizer estimate.

Maybe Jens can speak to how that’s — you can’t just split that in half when you compare our guidance to Pfizer’s.

Jens Holstein: Yes. It was awfully difficult to understand you actually due to the line. But what we could understand is — and Ryan was referring to this. I mean, of course, as you know, our revenue guidance is coming from three different areas, basically from the Pfizer part, the profit share that we have with Pfizer. And of course, profit share means that you have a residue figure from Pfizer and you got to see that there are — you got to take into account that there are COGS there of some magnitude that are — reducing that revenue figure to come to the gross profit. So if you assume something like — and you see, if you look into our figures, you see something like a COGS figure for the full year of 82.7 — sorry, gross profiting of 82.7%.