BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Jon Stonehouse: I would add to that, that when you combine growing revenue with discipline around capital allocation, you’re getting a lot closer to a situation where your cash needs to the company are self-sufficient, right? And we’re getting there. Tomorrow, really excited about what we’re going to share with you. But another really important piece is having clear go-no decisions and being disciplined about the [indiscernible], we’ve set and when we continue to invest or when we stop. And we’ve got a track record of that and we’ll continue that.

Operator: The next question is from Serge Belanger of Needham and Company.

Serge Belanger: Appreciate the additional detail on ORLADEYO trends. I guess 2 for Charlie. We saw the percentage of patients on free product creep up late in the year last year. Just curious what you’re seeing on that front. And then I think earlier this year, there was an issue with the lack of funding for co-payment support programs that led you to start the year on I guess, with a higher base of patients on free product as we get closer to 2024, is that an issue that could replicate itself?

Charlie Gayer: Sure. Thanks, Serge. So first on the percentage creeping up at the end of last year. I think as I made a couple of comments on an earlier question, its reauthorization — not — sorry, not re-enrollment season right now and so there are some patients who are switching around plans. Things did creep up a little in Q4. I don’t know what will happen or Q3. I don’t know what will happen in Q4 but it’s not likely to get better. I’d point you to what I said earlier which is this is a long multiyear game in terms of how we see this improvement in paid happening. But is probably not going to get better in Q4 but we have confidence in the long term. As far as the co-payment assistance in the Medicare from earlier this year.

That issue is still going on. It’s been going on all year. We don’t know what’s going to happen next year. Also, the IRA starts to kick in next year. So that’s going to lead to some different dynamics. And so I would assume kind of similar dynamics but we don’t know at this point. We’ll just have to wait and see how the early part of next year plays out outside of our control.

Jon Stonehouse: Yes. I think the realistic way of looking at it is we’re going to plan for a conservative case there’s going to be headwinds next year. So that’s why we’re saying don’t expect a lot of progress on free to pay next year.

Serge Belanger: Okay. And then on your path to $800 million in U.S. revenues in 2029, what assumptions do you make for the competitive landscape during that time frame?

Jon Stonehouse: I think let’s have Jinky answer this one because I think she’s got the best insight into this and some of the comments you made are really important to reinforce.

Jinky Rosselli: Yes. So we talk about the modeling, right and sort of how we do the research, the quantitative work with our base of patients and physicians. We share the profile of the competitive landscape, right? So for each competitor coming into the space, we present them with the opportunity to allocate patients to those competitors. And so what Charlie is using as sort of assumptions are all built out of those simulations, right, or the preference shares which then kind of pushed into the simulator. And the simulator then gives you a sense for where ORLADEYO is going to land within the contact with the competitors. So all the competitive, all the competitive dynamics are built into the assumptions.

Jon Stonehouse: Yes. So just a couple of other things to stress that you might not have caught. She’s a [indiscernible] since right which is probably not going to happen but we’re being really conservative and we’re seeing everybody get in to the market. And the other thing that she emphasized was injectables are going to take from injectables, right? And orals aren’t going to take for more ORLADEYO because there’s not an incremental benefit if you’re controlled on [indiscernible].

Jinky Rosselli: [Indiscernible] meaningful enough, not worth to wish for them.

Jon Stonehouse: So while we’re factoring it in, the impact to ORLADEYO is minimal.

Operator: The next question is from Gina Wang [ph] with Barclays.

Unidentified Analyst: This is Harshita [ph] on for Gina. I had a couple of quick ones on ORLADEYO. And then one on Factor D, I guess I’ll ask the factor D1 first. Are you going to give an update tomorrow if so I’ll defer the questions tomorrow on Factor D. If not, I was wondering if you could give a quick update on that program today.

Jon Stonehouse: [Indiscernible].

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. Perfect. So on ORLADEYO, I think one metric you haven’t talked about yet was the new prescription starts. How do you see the — how was it in this quarter versus in the future? Is it still — do you still expect 50% of new prescriptions from Tier 1? I just wanted some color on that.

Charlie Gayer: Yes. No, you’re right. I did not talk about the physician source. It’s really consistent with what it’s always been. So we’re getting about half from the Tier 1 that covers about half the market and half from everyone else. And our team has done a fantastic job of really reaching far you’re doing a great job of moving the big prescribers and some of that, it’s hard work that is gradual progress, as Jon, Jinky and I have been describing but then also seeking out patients in even a practice that might have 1 patient, they are there. And for a small team, they’ve covered a lot of ground and do it really efficiently.

Unidentified Analyst: Perfect. That’s really helpful. And the next quick clarification question is, in Jinky’s prepared remarks, I think you mentioned a comment on 35% of HAE prescribers are going to describe ORLADEYO. I can’t remember what was the comment. I just wanted a quick clarification on that. And what was the sample size of the HAE docs?

Jinky Rosselli: Yes. So that’s the quarterly measure of demand that we use. So we ask sort of what they’re currently prescribing and then we ask future prescribing in the next 12 months and that’s the 25%. And that’s been consistent sorry, study over study and that level of demand. So they are anticipating growth in their prescribing over the next 12 months.

Jon Stonehouse: Yes. Let me just put a fine point on that. That’s 25% of their patients they’ll prescribe of the docs and then the sample size, Jinky.

Jinky Rosselli: Yes. The sample size for the quarterly pulses are 65 allege and immunologists in our larger studies which we do once a year, they’re up what I said 175 [ph].

Operator: The next question is from Jacqueline Lu [ph] of Oppenheimer.

Unidentified Analyst: This is [indiscernible]. Could you provide a little bit more impact for tomorrow. So you guys specifically, could you comment on the compote [ph] therapeutics in the last where the unmet need is this for — and particularly data [ph] and continues to grow the inhibitors [ph].