We recently published a list of Billionaire Paul Singer Says Stay Away from These 7 AI Bubble Stocks; 3 Tech Stocks He’s Buying. Since Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 6th on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
Billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management has reportedly said in a latest letter to investors that mega-cap AI tech stocks are in “bubble land” and Nvidia is “overhyped.” The fund said in its letter that it’s skeptical about the notion that technology companies will keep buying AI chips in high volumes in the future, adding that AI is “overhyped with many applications not ready for prime time”. It also claimed that many AI use cases are “never going to be cost-efficient, are never going to actually work right, will take up too much energy, or will prove to be untrustworthy.” The fund reportedly said in its letter that AI is in effect software that has failed to deliver “value commensurate with the hype”.
The $66 billion Elliott Management founded by billionaire Paul Singer, who is one of the most feared activist investors in the US, said there are “few real uses” of AI other than “summarising notes of meetings, generating reports and helping with computer coding”.
Elliott Management said in its letter that it stayed away from “bubble” stocks included in the Magnificicient Seven group.
Elliott Management last year posted a modest gain of 4.7%. However, it has a record of no down years since the financial crisis in 2008. Since its inception in 1977, the fund has reported just two down years, a feat hard to match in the hedge fund industry.
While Elliott calling mega-cap AI stocks a bubble is a major development, it’s certainly not a surprise. Many investors and market experts have been warning about the hype around major AI stocks.
Here is what Insider Monkey’s founder and Research Director Inan Dogan said about Elliott Management’s latest thoughts on AI stocks:
“I have been saying that NVDA’s market cap assumes that the company will make around $150 billion in profits perpetually which is crazy. Elliott is saying the same thing and it is becoming news! Investors don’t know how to bet on the AI revolution, so the only visible companies that they think will benefit are semiconductor and cloud companies. That’s why they have been piling into NVDA. It doesn’t mean that other tech companies are in a bubble territory. In contrast, if Elliott is right that other megacaps are overspending on NVDA chips right now, this implies that their earnings are understated and they are actually much more profitable and cheaper than Elliott thinks. That’s why NVDA and cloud companies are in different categories. NVDA could be in bubble territory but I am not sure other megacaps in the Magnificient Seven group are in a bubble.”
For this article, we analyzed the top AI stocks in the Mag. 7 group which according to Paul Singer are in a bubble. We also talked about three AI/tech stocks that were in Singer’s portfolio, as of the end of the first quarter of this year. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 150
Apple is an important part of the Mag. 7 group which Elliott Management is bearish on.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) AI initiative Apple Intelligence has started to make sense to Wall Street analysts. Recently, Baird raised its price target on the stock to $240 from $200, citing a potential upgrade cycle in iPhone because of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) Intelligence.
Baird analyst William Power said in a note that he estimates a whopping 95% of iPhones in the world will need an upgrade at “some point” to take advantage of Apple Intelligence. The analyst mentioned lower upgrade rates at AT&T and Verizon, suggesting consumers might be waiting for AI-integrated smartphones. Based on this catalyst, the analyst upped his fiscal 2025 iPhone estimates by about 20 million units, now projecting iPhone revenue to reach $216.1 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of 6% growth. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is expected to generate $418.1 billion in full-year revenue and $7.30 per share in earnings, up from previous forecasts of $394.6 billion and $6.73 per share.
However, the assumption that we will see a huge upgrade cycle of iPhone just because of AI is big and comes with a lot of risks. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) trades at a forward PE multiple of around 35x, well above its 5-year average of nearly 27x. Its expected EPS forward long-term growth rate of 10.39% does not justify its valuation, especially with the iPhone upgrade cycle assumption. Adjusting for this growth results in a forward PEG ratio of 3.33, significantly higher than its 5-year average of 2.38.
Polen Focus Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“The largest relative detractors in the quarter were NVIDIA, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), and Salesforce. In a reversal from some of the concerns driving the stock down in the first quarter, Apple re-emerged as a top performer in the second quarter. The company reported better-than-feared results in its iPhone segment that quelled concerns over weakness in China. Additionally, the company forecast a return to sales growth and announced a $110 billion stock buyback plan, the largest in U.S. history. Later in the period, at its Worldwide Developers Conference, Apple introduced long-awaited new AI features that spurred some optimism around an upgrade cycle for the iPhone and, more generally, the important role Apple may be able to play in the emerging AI landscape. We continue to study Apple closely, which we previously owned the company for many years during its growth phase, to determine if it is poised for another significant revenue and earnings growth period.”
Overall, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 6th on Insider Monkey’s list titled Billionaire Paul Singer Says Stay Away from These 7 AI Bubble Stocks; 3 Tech Stocks He’s Buying. While we acknowledge the potential of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AAPL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
READ NEXT: Analyst Sees a New $25 Billion “Opportunity” for NVIDIA and Jim Cramer is Recommending These Stocks.
Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.
