Big Lots, Inc. (NYSE:BIG) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Bruce Thorn: And Spencer, I’ll just come back to your second part of the first question on normalized cadence as shopping as we get closer to holiday. We saw this in leading up to Halloween where customers were slow to shop and then it picked up and we see the similar thing happening in Q4, a slow start to customer traffic. And it’s reflected in all the competitor promos that you’ve seen probably out there. I’ll just tell you, I’ve seen retailers before Halloween going 50%-plus off on holiday product. I’m not seeing that before in a long, long time. And so yes, I think as we get closer and we’re in the thick of it now, coming off Black Friday and Cyber Monday where shopping patterns are getting better. The traffic is getting better, as we’d lead up to Christmas. We did have a strong showing both online and in-store for Black Friday and Cyber Monday for e-commerce.

Spencer Hanus: Great. That’s helpful. Thank you.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed with your question.

Joe Feldman: Yes. Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for taking the question. Wanted to ask about the gross margin little bit more, you guys talked about reducing prices and you gave us some guidance for this fourth quarter, but you mentioned that it will resetting prices in furniture in 2023 probably I’m assuming the first half. How will that impact the gross margin for next year? Will there be as much recovery? Or it sounds like it could be a bit more challenged for longer, kind of, should the new level be this mid-30% gross margin?

Jonathan Ramsden: Hey, Joe, good morning. Yes, good question, so there were two big dynamics that have driven our rate down in 2022 and that’s been freight and markdowns and promotions and we see both of those getting incrementally better, including in Q4, by the way, but certainly continuing into 2023. We’re pretty much paying peak freight rates now based on the contracts we entered into in the spring of this year. We see a very significant tailwind from freight coming, particularly as we get into the sort of second quarter, the latter part of the second quarter and beyond in 2023. And now some of that will use to take prices down. As we’ve referenced, some of it will be taking to the bottom line. But we also expect to be much less promotional coming through 2023 than we needed to be in 2022, given the excess inventory we were carrying from much of the year.

We’re also — as well as freight, we’re also expecting some cost of goods benefits to flow through that will help from the price adjustments that we’re making. So they’re the principal dynamics, and then Bruce wants to add something.

Bruce Thorn: Yes. Hi, Joe. I’ll add that, like we said in our opening remarks, already restored especially in the furniture area, our opening price points at least across about 60% of it. We by the end of Q1, we’ll have that all basically restored and we’ve done that through negotiations, reengineering. So the margin will be good as well. And then when you — we also add in the work and the traction we’re making on the bargains or closeouts as we historically have talked to it. That penetration is going to grow substantially into ’23 and we see that as being margin accretive a good opportunity both for the customer and for us to increase sales and margin into ’23.

Jonathan Ramsden: And I’ll just add Joe one other comment, you know, from a long-term standpoint, we haven’t changed our outlook on gross margin. We think as we’re dealing with a huge freight headwind, which is starting to turn, we’ve got a big markdown impact in there, but we fully expect over time to get back to that 40% or greater gross margin we’ve talked about.

Bruce Thorn: We just had a massive bubble to work through coming off of ’21 into ’22 and we’re seeing the end of that.

Joe Feldman: Got it. That’s helpful. Thanks guys. And that kind of leads into the next question, maybe bigger picture like strategically, it seems like there’s a tremendous amount of pressure, we won’t — not seem. We know there’s tremendous pressure in the environment right now and all this year. And yet you guys — it feels like some of the strategic efforts you’re making continue to shift a little in pivot? And I’m wondering if that’s necessary given just we’re working through a tough environment. I know you always have to change your strategy and adjust, but I just was hoping you could maybe address some of that like how much of this — because it feels like you guys layouts in the strategic initiatives each quarter and they shift a little bit? And I’m just wondering if they need to shift as much as they have been, because the environment is really the issue?