Nitin Mhatre : Well, you didn’t miss it because we didn’t say it — share it. So it’s really not inconsistent or it is — I should better said, it is consistent with market forwards. So one more move higher and then an easing cycle beginning in March of next year, market forwards have about 120 basis points build in. And we don’t really have a view different.
Bill Young : Okay. Got it. Got it. And I guess just switching over to just kind of loan growth. Could you just kind of maybe speak high level to, I guess, what kind of economic scenario we could be in that would maybe make you more comfortable in terms of pushing or achieving loan growth at the higher end of your $9.4 billion range. I think that’s maybe about 6%.
Kevin Conn : Sure. I just if you think we were all together three months ago, right? And the difference from an economic perspective is the possibility of a recession at the end of ’23 is now pretty much off the table. It’s been pushed out. You’ve seen the equity market respond quite strongly. The — you’ve seen interest rates up as well. So the — I would never say we’re not concerned about a downturn. But I would say if the data that’s come in, it feels like it’s been pushed out. What I would say is in our collective management of the balance sheet, there’s two high-level drivers that govern almost all of our thinking. One is the economic outlook that you’re referencing but other is just funding, funding cost and then the ability to fund loan growth.
And as Nitin talked about in his comments, so our originations are down linked quarter. Our pipelines are reduced a bit linked quarter, we’re being more selective, but we are — we want to service our customer base, especially our existing customer base. So — but it — under that overlay of what if the economic scenario gets worse, what is the Fed over tightens? And how are we going to fund it?
Nitin Mhatre : Yeah, Bill. I think one more thing I would add is the other part of it is relatively less controllable to the attendant what do the customers want? And I think we’ve seen the line utilization, for example, go down significantly in the second quarter. And depending on the needs of the consumers, that might ramp up and that might show up in the balances, especially in the C&I and ABL segment.
Kevin Conn : Yeah. Nitin, that’s a really good point. The — so our line utilization was down 5% in the quarter. We called out muted even down C&I books. And we had an elevated level of payoffs in our ABL book. And it’s mostly around customers who are paying on a floating rate basis, doing everything to maximize — to minimize their interest expense, right? They’re maximizing their cash utilization. They’re paying down lines when they can.
Bill Young : Got it. And just to kind of follow up on that, the 5% down utilization rate, what is that at quarter-end versus what it was in the first quarter?
David Rosato: It was 38%, yes, on the round.
Bill Young : Got it. Got it. And just one, I guess, housekeeping question. Just the 9.2 to 9.4 loans, that end up period, right, not average?
David Rosato: Yes, that’s ending.
Nitin Mhatre : And Billy, just more color on that is the — Billy, the delta between second quarter to the end of the year, that 9.2 to 9.4 roughly about 70% to 75% of the growth would come from commercial.
