Barings BDC, Inc. (NYSE:BBDC) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Kyle Joseph: Oh, no. I was going to say I have a follow-up, but keep your crystal ball out. But so in the context of potentially declining rates next year, how do you guys think about repayments? Obviously, the rate environment has muted repayments over the last about 18-months. But you know as we go into a potentially declining base rate environment obviously these are floating rate assets, which probably provide some insulation, but obviously if M&A were to pick up that would offset that. But yes, kind of, give us a sense, repayments have been muted for a while now, but you’re out looking into ’24?

Ian Fowler: Yes, so great question. You know, I can use ‘21, the back half of ‘21, as a benchmark. Because obviously, same different reasons, but same situation. You know, the M&A market was stalled. And then once we came out of COVID, the floodgates opened in the back half of ’21 was an incredible year in terms of volume and quality of deals that came to market. And if the crystal ball is true and it plays out that the Fed starts cutting rates close to the election and we go into ‘25, I would expect the same sort of situation to occur with the M&A market. And I think to your point, right now the benefit that we have, especially with our portfolio, which is performing really well, we have very little runoff. And so whatever new deal activity we have is actually allowing us to increase our AUM.

This is across our platform. That will obviously change. We saw that in ‘21 where runoff increased pretty dramatically as properties were traded. So definitely would expect that to increase dramatically when the M&A market opens up. But on the flip side, as long as you have a strong origination team and leadership position in the market, I think you’ll be able to replace that runoff with new deal activity. So it’ll be extremely busy just like it was back half of ‘21.

Kyle Joseph: Got it, very helpful. Thanks for answering my questions.

Ian Fowler: Yes, thanks Kyle.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question has come from the line of Robert Dodd with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Dodd: Hi, guys, and congratulations on the quarter. Another question for you Ian, probably. In your prepared remarks and you have said the conversion rates of actually — deals actually coming to closing, heading towards historic lows. Can you give us any, I mean, is that because sponsors are pulling deals, because of the valuation? Is it the level of competition for the high quality deals there’s still a lot of people that want them. I mean, can you give us any color on what’s driving that or to historic low levels of conversion?

Ian Fowler: Yes, sure Robert, and good morning.

Robert Dodd: Good morning.

Ian Fowler: I can probably at some point get you an exact breakdown, but I mean, for sure it’s all of the above. I would say that it’s not so much like the quality of deals, right? Because those deals just aren’t even making it through the screen, at least with the sponsors that we focus on. And so they’re looking at properties that are high quality properties. I think you have a couple of factors. I think definitely the valuation is an issue and also there’s a catch up, right? Because if you think about the elevated interest rate environment, you’re not really seeing the full impact of that interest rate effect until you get the next quarter’s financials. And now we’re kind of at this point where we’re starting to see like the full-year impact.