Barclays PLC (NYSE:BCS) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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A – C.S. Venkatakrishnan: Right. Do you want to start with mortgage? Go ahead.

A – Anna Cross: I will. So as you know, we don’t — we comment on spreads and mortgages. What I would just say is that spreads have been attractive, but pretty thin, as I said earlier. Because the market is very much dominated by refinancing activity and you see that typically in Barclays, if you look at our loan to values, they are low, just above 50% of the portfolio, and we’re acquiring in the sort of mid-60s. So there is a real margin opportunity here for us to utilize the capability that we’ve got within Kensington. And then, you might want to add to that, but…

A – Adeel Khan: I think — so mix is one, for sure. I think the other is process and service, which I think I’d call out because at the moment, if you don’t have great service and growth process, you end up having to compete more on price. And so I think as we invest more in our capabilities that I talked about, that should help us be able to compete better in the broker market as well as in the direct market, too.

A – C.S. Venkatakrishnan: All right. All right. One final question, Andy, for you.

A – Andrew Coombs: Andrew Coombs from City. I just down the UK. Firstly, a clarification on slide 114, you talk about mid single-digit NII CAGR in the targets. Is that off of the 2023 6.4? Or is that off the 2024, 6.1 plus the 0.4 from Tesco’s?

A – Anna Cross: Very simply, it’s from 2023 from the 6.4%…

A – Andrew Coombs: Perfect. And then more broadly, you outlined some of the initiatives on slide 111 that you have in order to grow the revenue base within that mid-single-digit Nii CAGR, there’s kind of three moving parts. One is those initiatives that you’ve outlined. The second is the impact of the structural hedge. And then the third is the impact to lower rates, I guess, if I had to break it down to three parts. How much of that revenue CAGR, broadly speaking, is from your own initiatives that you are now implementing, do you think?

A – Anna Cross: So Andy, we haven’t broken that down. I think what we have done is we’ve given you an indication of the RWAs that we expect to deploy within this business, not directly but if you take the £30 billion and imagine it splits broadly in alignment with the RWAs of the businesses that we’re focused upon. Then you’ll get an indication of really how much we expect to come from lending growth. And we gave you some modeling tools, if you like, around the structural hedge earlier, so the £170 million, the reinvestment and two-thirds of that goes to the UK.

A – Andrew Coombs: Right. So sorry, go ahead.

A – C.S. Venkatakrishnan: Just going to build. I think it’s pretty broad-based as well in terms of those initiatives. So it’s not concentrated in one area or the other. And the structural hedge is really important, but the dynamics change between 2024 and 2026, because obviously, you still got some deposit migration happening now, then you have a different effect coming with rates. And then, of course, all of those lending actions that we’ve talked about there on that slide start to play through into 2026.

A – Anna Cross: Just very conscious, we didn’t answer Ben’s second question, which was why do we expect a greater than 25% RoTE in the private bank? Do you want to pic that one?

A – C.S. Venkatakrishnan: Yeah, sorry. My bad. Its investment, so it is — investment is what brings it down from the 30% plus down to 25%. I think on this one, we are looking out to 2026. We are starting from fairly early levels in both the digital investment and the wealth management business. So it would be full hardy of me to project beyond 2026. But I think it’s important to say that this is an important and attractive business for us, and we’re going to invest.

A – Andrew Coombs: Great.

End of Q&A:

C.S. Venkatakrishnan: Thanks. So those who follow Test Cricket know that launch has taken promptly at 1 PM So I want to thank you for coming. And let me just repeat and thank you for being here for the last 4.5 hours. So I hope you got the sense of why Barclays. We’ve got very high return in UK, retail and corporate franchises. We have a top-tier global investment bank. We’ve got multiple levers to allocate capital in a discipline where we’re looking to drive growth within the higher returning divisions of the bank and greater RWA productivity within the investment bank. We are resetting our level on RoTE to 12%, higher than 12% in 2026 and capital return of at least £10 billion in the next three years, 2024 to 2026. Those are summary statistics. There’s a lot more. We are available over lunch to chat with you as well. So thank you for coming, and thanks for spending the time with us. We really appreciate it.

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