Bank OZK (NASDAQ:OZK) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Tim Hicks: Hi, good morning. Tim here. Given the level of origination volume we’ve had over the last four to six quarters, that €“ given our construction loans and the fact that in many of these loans were funding later in the construction phase. We do kind of know the schedule to a great extent of the funding for those loans. And so that gives us confidence, and you saw on Page 5 that we said we thought for 2023 that loan growth €“ 2023 would meet or exceed the $2.47 billion we achieved in 2022. So €“ and a lot of that is just the delayed funding sequence we have in those RESG loans and in combination with the growth profile that we have from some of our other business lines like asset-based lending and our Community Bank. We’ve got pretty good visibility into that for the 2023 year.

Timur Braziler: Okay. Great. And then maybe just a follow-up for you, Brendan. In looking at the national markets and kind of asset classes within RESG. Where are you seeing the most amount of resiliency right now? And then conversely, are there any geographies or asset classes that are seeing any kind of marked slowdown in either activity or valuation.

George Gleason: Great question. I don’t know if you take that.

Tim Hicks: Yes, yes. So what’s interesting, the book that we see coming to us continues to be a fairly diverse book, both geographically and from a property type perspective. I think one that stands out, and we’ve talked about it before, the upper Midwest, which includes Chicago, has been a little slower the past several quarters and then it continues to be the case. We’re still looking at deals there, but just on a relative basis to our history, a bit slower there. But when I look at what we’ve got signed up in the pipeline to close, it has a pretty similar mix as historically, you’re less office probably than we’ve seen, but we are still seeing office opportunities with pre-leasing frequently available in those opportunities.

And as I said before, really great position to achieve the low leverage that is our standard and really improving on that. But the Southeast continues to be south, southeast, southwest, those states where we’ve seen so much good origination historically remain sort of the feature, I would say, little slower on the coast, but we’re still doing deals on both coasts as well.

Timur Braziler: Okay. Great. And then just last for me, looking at the comments made around net charge-offs for the coming year, recognizing that €˜22 was a record year. How can we start thinking about normalized charge-offs? And then as we’re looking at provisioning levels, just maybe talk us through your thoughts on proven trajectory here in €˜23, given the broader uncertainty?

George Gleason: Tim, do you want to take that?

Tim Hicks: Sure. Yes, I mean, you can look on Figure 15 and our net charge-off history, obviously, what a great year in €˜22 to be able to record a 4 basis point net charge-off ratio, which is an all-time low. The range that we’ve had over the last 3 or 4 years in 2020, we had 16 basis points. Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty with the pandemic going on that year and 6 basis points in 2021 and 11 basis points in 2019. It’s hard for us to know what the net charge-off number is going to be for 2023. It’s likely to be somewhere in that range, would be our best guess based on what we know today. As it relates to provisioning, obviously, a lot goes into that. The macroeconomic factors that we get from Moody’s and used for Moody’s go into that.

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