Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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So look, we don’t have a great deal of precedent. It’s obviously a historic period. It’s difficult to forecast quarter-to-quarter, and it’s — our models are just a lot more sensitive right now. So, I think we’re going to try and share with you what we know when we know it, but it’s just a more difficult environment at this point to predict looking forward.

Mike Mayo: It’s like the first half of your round of golf, you played well, you should have just stopped after then, I guess. But, I guess, as we look — so in other words, that $400 million extra that you got, you’re kind of giving back here from the fourth to the first quarter. So, $14.4 billion NII guide, if you annualize that that would be still 9% NII growth in 2023. Is that a fair starting point? Can you give us not big confidence, but a little confidence given that deposits have stabilized, the day count, cards are seasonally lower. So again, you analyze that that’s 9% NII growth. And then, Brian, still on expenses, any change there? Are you going to keep it to just like 1.5% growth?

Brian Moynihan: On the first thing, Mike, you — it was something I was going to pick up on earlier to the first question. You picked up it going to the point — we will have growth in NII year-over-year in the range you talked about, if you take the $14.4 billion, as Alistair said, we expect it to sort of be less variability and annualize that, compare that to €˜22 of 9% as you said. So, you’re exactly right. So that’s good growth. And I think you’ll see as you move through the year €˜23, leave aside the economic scenario playing out. But you’ll see — you’ll move from where we are today, which is uncertainty about where the balances will finally settle in and the plateauing of those balances to where you get back to normalized growth and normalized loan growth, et cetera.

So, you’ve got it right. There’ll be nice NII growth year-over-year. On expenses, if you look at your guys’ estimates for us, 62.5%, which is what we sort of said earlier this — in the fourth quarter, we’re comfortable with that. That’s what the average of the Street analysts are. And that takes a lot of good management to get there, and we’ll continue to work on it, letting the headcount drift back down and continuing to invest in things that provide efficiencies. So, you’ve got it. And key to that is the six quarters of operating leverage and the idea of continuing that going.

Mike Mayo: And then, the last part of the income statement — or the EPS is simply your excess capital, which you highlighted, it seems like you’re well above your CET1 ratio. So, what does that mean for the pace of buybacks and your desire to buy back stock at this price?

Brian Moynihan: We’ve always said that the first desire is always to support business growth, and that’s what we’ve been doing. We then — we’re well above our minimums. We’re on a path to close out the requirement for next year. And so, we bought back a chunk of shares this quarter, you expect that to start to increase neutralizing employee issuances and then going above that each quarter now because we — 11.2% something, we were close to 11.4% targets. So, we’re back in the game.

Operator: Our next question comes from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

John McDonald: Alastair, I know we’re asking you to predict a lot of things here. Just thinking about the credit and the pace of normalization, do you have any sense of where charge-offs kind of might start out there and what kind of pace of normalization if we look at the charge-off ratio that moved up a little bit this quarter, what might that look like for 2023?

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