Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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So, they’re drifting down, but it’s still multiples. The big question was, will they end up spending that down? If they’re employed, probably not. But if they’re — if unemployment rate changes — and our models assume the unemployment rate changes. So I think we’re at 6 basis points now in total consumer rate paid. The rate structure is very high. And we are 11 basis points, it was — where we got to, we have very low CD volumes and things that have a fair amount of money markets, but most of it’s checking. That’s why we showed you the differential in checking. So, is it different? Yes, probably in the mass consumer business just because they are sitting on more cash and may use that cash, in certain scenarios, but the rest of the behavior is largely the same, including in the corporate business where people can have less balances and the effective credit rate generates a bigger number to cover their fees, so they tend to pull the balances out.

Gerard Cassidy: Just quickly, Brian, just when you look at the high net worth and corporate, did that move from 0% to 3% Fed funds, for example, versus 3% to where we got today at 4.5%? Is most of that completed where the people that were going to move the money have already moved it in those two categories?

Brian Moynihan: Well, I mean, I can’t say definitively, but you’ve seen — that’s what we showed you on those pages where we show the stable — the account balances are relatively stable in wealth management in the fourth quarter, $300-odd billion — $300-odd billion. Basically, they’re flat, if you look across the last several weeks. So, there’s always a little bit of migration to the preferred deposit, which is a market for higher-yielding sort of money market account. But, the big shift in that was, frankly, in the second quarter of €˜22 when I think we had $50 billion-odd numbers of tax payments, which was lot higher than in past years due to — if you think about the €˜21 dynamic and capital gains and other things that went through.

So, what we’re seeing is the last 4 or 5 weeks, we’re seeing relatively stable in deposit balances. Quarter end three, quarter and four basically flat, a little bit of movement among the categories. But in that business, frankly, a fairly sort of stable place right now. And so I think this long answer, realize a sort of answer if they move the money, they kind of already moved it.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Mike Mayo: I guess, Alastair, I guess, no good deed goes unpunished. I mean, NII did grow 21% for the year 2022. It did grow 7% linked quarter and the fourth quarter up $900 million. But six weeks after you gave guidance last quarter, you lowered that guidance by $300 million. And it just raised some questions about the quality of your modeling or if you had your arms completely around the asset liability management. So, what happened to cause you to change that guidance, albeit in the context of still some of the best NII growth you guys have seen in many years?

Alastair Borthwick: Yes. So Mike, if I go back to six months ago, quarter two earnings, what we said at the time was we thought over the course of the next six months, NII might go up by $1.8 billion, $1.85 billion. In actual fact, it’s gone up $2.25 billion. So, that’s the actuals. Remember, we’re forecasting as best we can at any given time, up $2.25 billion. Q3 was more favorable than I think we had thought and Q4 was less favorable. And the Q4 was less favorable in large part because the balances behaved just a little bit differently, and the rate paid behaved just a little bit differently. And the mix or rotation, if you like, that behaved a little differently. It kind of makes sense because Q4 is where QT kind of kicked in.

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