Bank of America Corp (BAC), Citigroup Inc (C): Is the Stock Market Getting Frothy?

So where does this leave us?

I believe that the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Let’s take a look at one last chart (the explanation follows).

This is an index that compares the gross domestic product to corporate profits to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Indices:.DJI) — all of which are adjusted for inflation. Over the long run, there’s a strong correlation here — if you work backwards from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow Jones Indices:.DJI), this shouldn’t be surprising. The overarching trend and magnitude of increase, in other words, is pretty closely aligned among the three variables.

Yet at any one time in particular, there are discrepancies. The most notable of these were the 1960s — the so-called “Go-Go Years” — and the time period surrounding both the dot-com and housing bubbles. In each case, the performance of stocks outpaced GDP. And in each case, these intervals were concluded in dramatic fashion by stock market crashes.

To get back to the present, if you look to the far right side of the chart you’ll see that the Dow has once again eclipsed the GDP trend line — it should be noted, moreover, that the extent of the eclipse is understated, since the data stops at the end of last year. If history is any guide, in turn, this is indeed indicative of an overheated market.

On the other hand, to Josh’s point, corporate profitability appears to be a primary impetus for the climb — though, as you can see, this was similarly the case in the mid-’60s, late ’90s, and early ’00s. In addition, we obviously have a long way to go before the present resembles anything like those previous bubbles.

My point here is this: Stocks are high. On a comparative basis, are they as high as they were during these earlier periods of excess? No. And could they go higher? Yes. Absolutely. In fact, I’m inclined to think they will in light of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing liquidity measures. But these factors aside, it’s important that investors have a decent idea of where we’re at.

The article Is the Stock Market Getting Frothy? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by John Maxfield.

John Maxfield owns shares of Bank of America. The Motley Fool owns shares of Bank of America and Citigroup.

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