Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE:SAN) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ignacio Cerezo: Two very quick ones. The first one is, if you can give us your best approximation of what to expect from Argentina in terms of earnings in 2024? And the second one, if you have charged anything on the motor finance and discussion basically in the UK and if you can give us your view of how that discussion basically can develop and what kind of restructuring charges impairments actually might have to face in ’24 and ’25 on the basis of this?

Ana Botin: So Argentina, our bank in Argentina is doing incredibly well. Obviously, the exchange rate has meant a few basis points of effect on our capital and volatility in the quarterly numbers. I believe for next year and how we’re going to report is going to be leaving Argentina in current so you can get a better view of what really is going on. So this is really important. We report in constant when you look at the performance of the business, but we’ll leave Argentina in current. In terms of the P&L, it’s not really material except for this volatility across that. And the effect on capital was a few basis points, I think 2, 3 basis points in Q4, Argentina. We’re not anticipating, nothing very different for the next year.

In terms of the UK, it’s still early days. It would not be a significant, I mean, we — I’m going to say it can be significant. We don’t really know but it should not be a big number because it’s not a really big portfolio. FCA is looking into it. So, nothing really that, right now we’re concerned about.

Operator: Next question is from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Alvaro Serrano: Two quick ones, hopefully, on Brazil, obviously, very strong growth in NII, can you maybe talk us through that strong growth? I see that cards have seen a pickup in growth. Maybe you can update us where you are in that card growth strategy versus your run rates, you’ve given us in the past. And will the 100% cap on loan rates. How will that affect you in 2024? And second very quick one, can you give us what tax rate you’re assuming for your 2024 and 2025 targets? And any color you can give us in particular in Brazil and the U.S, how to think about in those two regions?

Ana Botin: There’s quite a few questions. I’m going to answer very high level and we can then address some of the others in the coming quarters. But basically Brazil is as you’ve seen is doing exactly what we predicted in the last few quarters. We’re expecting a much higher profitability in 2024 in the high-teens actually, costs actually growing less in line or even a bit below inflation given the one transformation which is already having effects in Brazil. We can grow and actually grow our cost base less because we’re investing together. Revenue growth, net interest income between double-digit and yes, all double-digit growth in all the top-line and efficiency ratio improving again. So very strong performance anticipated for 2024 across all the different global businesses, but driven by retail and consumer in terms of the tax rate and cards, just I don’t think anything you want to say about cards?

All I can say about cards is that we put the brakes on two years ago actually 18 months ago, you’ve seen that in the cost of risk in the consumer portfolios in Brazil coming down. We’re anticipating a lower cost of risk in Brazil next year. And that is mostly a reflection of the lesser growth in cards. We will start to grow again. But again, the growth in Brazil is across all the global businesses, not just the retail, but also the consumer, CIB and all the others. In terms of the tax rate for ’24?

Hector Grisi: No. mean, just one comment on growth in Brazil. If you look at the consumer finance, which includes everything in Brazil this year, it was the portfolio together with CIB that grew the least, just 2.2%. And obviously, as rates come down, that portfolio should increase next year a bit more than the average. So, we are expecting more or less very low-double-digit growth in loans in Brazil next year. This portfolio should grow a little bit more than the average, and we would expect corporate loans, corporate lending growing a little bit less than the average. So that shows the change in mix that we expect for next year that should support margin expansion together with the interest the sensitivity that we have to rates.

Ana Botin: On the tax rate, I don’t know the exact numbers and maybe afterwards you can follow up Jose or Begona. But there is an effect in the tax rate from the, which is actually a business line or business quality revenue because of the electric vehicles in the U.S. You’re seeing that some of that already in Q4. It’s actually as I say, it’s a business, but you’re seeing that through the tax line. So, that maybe you want to give some color on that later on.

Operator: Next question is from Marta Sanchez Romero from Citi. Please go ahead.