Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE:SAN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Page 8 of 12

Jose Garcia-Cantera: Yes, very quickly. At the end of the year, we had EUR 11 billion, more or less in euro ALCO. We’ve been building that in the fourth quarter. So as the Chair said, the impact of that in the NII in the quarter was really not significant. Our plan is to gradually build an ALCO, reaching a neutral position, not this year, maybe in 2 or 3 years. We know that we have a very, very low ALCO portfolio, and we want to gradually increase the size of the ALCO portfolio. We will do it, not only buying Spanish government bonds. We want to have a diversified portfolio, German, Italian, French bonds as part of that portfolio going forward. This is a significant difference relative to the way we built our ALCO portfolios in the past.

Ana Botin: Yes. In terms of the double-digit revenue growth that is in current in euros. So we are guiding to double-digit revenue growth in euros. I think that was the other question that you asked, yes. Let me just say — just to expand on that. I mean one of the reasons that our TNAV hasn’t grown as much as we believe it will grow in the future is that for the reason I said before. So if you look at ’19, ’22 period, 50% of the value creation was from Brazil and the U.S., and I’m talking in euros after all the effects. Reason for that is, of course, that the U.S. and Brazil did really well but also that Europe did not do as well. And you’re beginning to see that change in ’22. I was just checking numbers, and please take this with a grain of salt.

I know Begoña will say and others. But if you look at 2008, Santander made about EUR 800 million in Banesto and somewhere around EUR 2 billion — it was a different criteria, but just for orders of magnitude, EUR 2 billion, close to EUR 2 billion in the Santander network. In 2022, Spain is back to . I know conditions are very different and everything — and of course, how we delivered those profits, a big chunk of that was with real estate developers. Today, that is minimal to the previous question. So there is a big opportunity to continue improving not just in Spain, as I said, but also in Europe, and that’s why we’re guiding to double-digit revenue growth. And again, as you’ve seen this year, the big delta will continue to be in Europe for different reasons: operating performance as well as the tailwinds in interest rates.

Operator: The next question is coming from Benjamin Toms from RBC Capital Markets.

Benjamin Toms: Firstly, on loan growth in the U.K. It feels like the mortgage market is about to go through a very sharp downturn. Can you give some guidance on loan growth that you expect in the U.K. for 2023? And then secondly, on Swiss franc mortgage and Poland. Can you just update us on the assumptions you’re listing for the provision there, please, and how those assumptions compare to peers?

Ana Botin: So I will let Héctor with the Swiss franc. But just on the U.K., it’s a market that I’m very familiar with. We’re expecting to improve profitability in 2023. We are focusing more on margins than volumes because there is a very competitive and challenging environment. Our cost of risk is minimal. Right now, we come out, I believe, if not — I think, the best on stress test. And so we have a lot of focus on quality of the portfolio, with a 40% loan to value. And it is important, as I said before, the macro context on employment. And this is the key one for us in terms of how we will perform, not just net interest income and revenues but also overall profitability, including in the U.K. So I don’t know if — by the way, the U.K. is the only country where, as you know, both the IMF but also in our numbers, we are expecting a recession, a negative growth for the whole 2023, okay?

Page 8 of 12