Banco Santander, S.A. (NYSE:SAN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Hector Grisi: Sure. Look, I don’t know without specificity exactly what’s going on in the vintages. But what I can tell you is what we have seen, and the trend is that the new vintages are performing much better than expected. And why is that? Because first of all, we changed, as we have said, a little bit the mix but also the risk profile in the sense that we — since we were very much focused on profitability in that regard, the risk that we are seeing in those vintages is a little better because profitability was of the essence in what we did, and we were very much focused on that, and profitability based on the model that we have is based on risk. So in that sense, what tells you is that we were very much focused on that.

And also, as I told you before, the trend is much better than we have seen. And we could see that it’s going to perform better than it did in the past. In the second one, we should see growth in Brazil in the to for NII. So in that sense, we see that this is going quite well. We are being very cautious in Brazil in the way we manage risk. And in that sense, as the Chairman already said, I mean, we have negative sensitivity in the interest rates, but the growth of the portfolio basically offsets that. So as you have seen, I mean we’re going to continue expanding the NII in that sense.

Operator: The next question is coming from Marta Sánchez Romero from Citi.

Marta Sánchez Romero: The first one is regarding your real estate exposure in Spain. Would you say a restructuring is due? And would it make sense to use some of your extra NII to clean up? The second question is about the U.S. top line. It has been somewhat weak moving backwards. Your customer spread is moving backwards. We’re seeing competition for deposits in the U.S. So can you give us some color on what to expect for NII and fee growth in the U.S. for 2023? And the last quick question, what’s the tax rate you expect in Brazil for next year? It’s been quite low this year at just 30%. Yes.

Ana Botin: So in terms of real estate in Spain, I’m going to need a bit of help here from Héctor and José, but we are not expecting — so our main exposure in Spain today has nothing to do with what we had back in 2008. So the developer’s exposure is at very low levels. Remember that Spain has not built many homes for the last 12, 14 years. So one of the most resilient housing markets in Europe or definitely in our 10 core markets, we expect it to be Spain. There’s been a big deleveraging of families. Employment remains very high. And at the end, our real estate exposure is mostly in the individuals, in mortgages, and that is — we expect it to be resilient. And again, as in the U.K., very much based on employment levels, which will fall but from historic highs.

So in terms of restructurings in real estate, there’s nothing that is anything material that would affect our guidance or our performance in Spain. If you go back, for example, where were the earnings, not just Santander, but as a sector in 2008? A big chunk of this was in real estate developers. Today, that is, I’d say, minimal, very small. And we have restructured these. These are listed companies that is a mark-to-market, and it’s actually doing pretty well. So there is nothing there that would cause any concern in terms of the numbers, again, in Spain. In terms of the U.S. top line, I think Héctor has explained that but can give you more details.

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