Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ignacio Ulargui: I just have one question on the competitive landscape on the loan book in the same. I mean, we have seen a bit of a slowdown in the pressure in mortgages, at least as the perception I have. Just wanted to see how do you see the market competing into 2023. And if there is any kind of in spreads? And second, a more financial question. I just wanted to understand, and I am sure that you understand the benefit of IRB models, but I mean the fact that we have doesn’t lead you to believe at some stage to move to standardized models and stop dealing with all these kind of regulatory headwinds single year and quarter.

Onur Genc: Ignacio, regarding the loan growth in Spain, again, we are guiding for flat for next year. The reason is, again, mortgage will be, in our view, negative next year. But again, the working capital needs of companies especially is leading us to believe that there might be some growth there. There might be some growth in consumer book and so on. Just to be — maybe to be helpful to you, in terms of the new production that we have for different books in Spain, the fourth quarter production was 3% higher than the third quarter of the year, it was 8% higher versus the fourth quarter of last year. So quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year on the flow of new production has been relatively positive. And when I look into the positivity, for example, let’s focus on quarter-over-quarter.

Very small businesses, PMS, 5% up the production. Midsized companies, 6% up. So in those segments, given the need for working capital, we do see some positive dynamics. As a result, all of that, we are guiding you towards the flat growth that we set in the guidance document. Then the standardized models versus advanced models, you pressed our button on this one. This is something that we are working on. This is something also — it’s a discussion with our supervisors saying that simplifying the model landscape might be helpful. And that’s something that we would be working on in this coming year, to be fair.

Operator: Our next question is from Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Carlos Peixoto: Carlos from CaixaBank here. A couple of questions from my side as well. The first one is actually just a bit of a follow-up in terms of your guidance. You’re guiding towards core revenues of mid growth of mid-20s, which basically above the guidance to better in for NII and fees in both Spain and Mexico. So might hear is this explained by a very strong performance expected in Turkey and in South America? Then second question on capital, which would be — we believe more detailed one or a small detail, is the share buyback announced already from the capital ratio, or is that an impact that will come through next year?

Onur Genc: That’s a very good question. And the second one, Rafa, do we deduct the share buyback already from capital?

Rafael Salinas: Already included on the 12.61.

Onur Genc: Already deducted. We deduct when — we announce things, we deducted. On the first one regarding the guidance, it’s not Turkey and so on. Carlos, you see it also in the country-by-country guidance. In Spain, we are also — for NII, we are guiding in current euros. Obviously, it’s a euro country. growth at low 20s. Growth at low 20s is obviously, given the NII weight in the total group NII, it feeds in. For Mexico, we are putting in growth at mid-teens, again, which then feeds in. And those two countries are the key. Then for the others, we do have growth in constant terms, but we do also bake in the forward curve of the currency. In that sense, it’s already factored in. So mid-20s is gross, is constant euros. But in current euros, as I’m telling — as I told you at the beginning of this call, is that we are expecting mid-teens. It’s mainly because of the fact that both Mexico and Spain continue to be very strong.

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