Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE:BBVA) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Rafael Salinas: Basel IV, I think we haven’t provided any guidance, but I think what is clear in our case is that our — the impact of Basel IV is going to be much lower than the industry average. If you analyze the EBA estimates the Basel IV impact that is just on average of around 260 basis points for the European banks. In our case, it’s going to be well, well below a completely different scale. Maybe because in our case, we have a high-density risk-weighted assets. A big portion of those are already calculated with the standard models. And in fact, some of the low default portfolios are going to release some capital on the new framework. So at the end of the day, we are only going to be slightly affected on the financial review of the trading book, FRTB and in operational risk. So but at the end of the day, the impact is going to be very, very limited.

Onur Genc: And Andrea, regarding the 14 basis points impact or other, you were asking on this one, I will give you the details so that I can avoid your detailed question on beta. But on 14 basis points, the market impact is around 10 basis points, FX, 2; and then fixed income and equity was zero actually, but eight plus two, the market impact was 10 basis points positive. Then hyperinflation accounting around 20 basis points because as you know, in Argentina, in Turkey, we add back the hyperinflation losses that we registered in P&L into OCs. That’s why we always say that from a capital perspective, it’s neutral. That’s around 20. And then the regulatory impacts, as I did mention to you, in the quarter, on top of the 10 that we did in the first nine months, we did a 20 basis points negative impact from regulation, bringing some — and there is some other minor impacts when you sum them up, it gives you the 14.

Then the betas, the key beta really Andrea, that matters at the moment is Spain, and I gave you all the numbers around it, the combined beta that we estimate when we see the pressure is going to be around 20%, 25%. It’s for the rest of this year that we have put into planning, again, starting with the second quarter. That’s the key one. And regarding Mexico, again, I already gave you the guidance number. The beta number there is a bit different. But what I can tell you is that the 2% that you see in the cost of funding at the moment, we do expect some slight increase on that one, but not much. If you go to 2018 in Mexico, another time period, a recent period where you have seen higher rates, at that time, the policy rate, if I’m not mistaken, was 8.5, 8 or 8.5, in that range.

In that period, our cost of funding peaked around 2% again. So this is not like, oh, my god, there is something unusual here. No. I mean it goes back to the franchise that we have. to the transactional deposits that we have in Mexico. The fact that most of our deposits is demand deposits and transactional deposits is basically telling us that the beta is a relatively small figure in Mexico. And then what is the inflation expectation for Turkey, the BUA research number, we always stick to our independent research entity on this one is around 45%.

Operator: Our next question is from Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas Ignacio. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

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